I-N-D-I-A card played at Bengaluru: Opposition Leaders rebrand themselves as "Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance"

BJP's media strategists brianstorm to shape a new narrative around the emerging acronym, with leading contender for top-brass approval being "Indicted Nepotistic Dishonest and Intolerant Autocrats".

From Patna to Bengaluru: Following the June 23 Patna Conclave, where major Indian political parties had earlier converged, a gathering of 26 opposition parties has now assembled in Bengaluru for a crucial 2-day meet on July 17 and 18, 2023¹. Emerging from an intensive behind-the-scenes deliberations, the leaders unveiled their strategic move by playing the I-N-D-I-A card, rebranding themselves as the "Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance’². This reinvigorated alliance will establish an 11-member Coordination Committee, with further discussions in Mumbai to finalize the names of coordinators and members, along with the formation of a dedicated secretariat in Delhi for campaign management and other purpose-specific committees.

In a joint statement, the opposition leaders expressed their determination to confront the challenges posed by the ruling BJP government, condemning their alleged assault on democracy, the Constitution, misuse of autonomous institutions, rising unemployment, and inflation. With unity as their strength, they affirmed their commitment to fight resolutely and emerge victorious. “𝐈𝐍𝐃𝐈𝐀 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐰𝐢𝐧!”, they asserted.

Congress-AAP Détente: A lot of water has flown down the Yamuna since then, both literally and metaphorically. The Congress Party and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) appear to have resolved their differences and reached an agreement, unequivocally opposing the Modi Government's ordinance that limits the powers of the Delhi CM and his Council of Ministers and effectively overturns the Supreme Court's verdict. This was a crucial sticking point for the AAP leader, and failure to address it would have soured the proceedings. The fact that the mild whimpers of protest by the Punjab unit of the Congress Party have been ignored in this decision shows that dislodging Modi in the 2024 elections is more important to the Congress High Command than appeasing a sulking unit in Punjab, which only contributes 13 seats to the Lok Sabha.

Sharad Pawar, the venerable NCP National President, finds himself in a tricky situation with his own nephew, Ajit Pawar, virtually deserting him to join the BJP's coalition government in Maharashtra. To circumvent the Anti-defection law, they claim to be the "real" NCP. Additionally, Mr. Prafula Patel, Mr. Pawar's second-in-command and a prominent attendee at the Patna meet, also sides with Ajit Pawar. This does not bode well for opposition unity.

On a positive note, Jayant Chaudhary, the Chief of Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), who couldn't attend the Patna meet due to a prior family function, now joins the gathering. While his influence on Lok Sabha seats in western UP may be modest, his presence sends a positive signal of support from the farmers' perspective.

Significance of Bengaluru: Bengaluru, known for its robust conference infrastructure, is also backed by the newly-elected Congress Government in Karnataka. It is hoped that the venue may prove fortunate for opposition unity, since it was also the birthplace of the opposition effort, which led to the ouster of Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1989.

Congress at Centre-stage: The presence of Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, the titular Congress President Mr. Kharge, and the Karnataka CM leaves no doubt that the Congress Party is essentially hosting the meeting. Sonia Gandhi virtually presides over the event. Rahul Gandhi, currently seeking a "stay on his conviction" from the Supreme Court (as distinct from the stay on his 2-year sentence, which he has already obtained), realizes that his troubles are far from over. Removing Modi in 2024 is the only guarantee to end his perennial legal-cum-political problems. It is worth noting that unless his conviction is stayed or set aside, he will be ineligible to contest the upcoming Lok Sabha elections or become a member of the Rajya Sabha.

Underlying tensions remain: Despite the camaraderie displayed at the opposition meeting on July 17-18, underlying tensions persist. While it was anticipated to be a gathering of various political parties with the aim of making crucial decisions such as selecting a leader or convenor for the I-N-D-I-A conglomerate and determining a seat-sharing formula, these expectations were not met during the deliberations in Bengaluru. The absence of several influential regional heavyweights, particularly those unaligned with the BJP, has undoubtedly caused apprehension among the opposition ranks. Although the 26-party lineup appears impressive, the missing players have raised concerns and added to the unease.

The NDA Government, led by Mr. Narendra Modi, who enjoys a majority even with the BJP MPs alone, is optimistic. Following Mr. Modi's successful visits to the USA and France and the vibrant G-20 events across the country, India is being portrayed as a force to be reckoned with on the global stage, beyond its traditional "soft-power." The BJP is also directly castigating the AAP government in Delhi, criticizing its "good governance" model and highlighting its failure to tackle the Yamuna floods. The role of the army in aid of civil authority, projected as a central SOS intervention is profusely praised, accentuating the perceived failure of the civil and civic administration that AAP boasts about. While AAP is not one to take things lying down and quickly shifts blame to Haryana for not controlling the Yamuna waters at the barrages in its territory, this unprecedented natural calamity somewhat tarnishes Mr Kejriwal's image as an efficient administrator and dampens (pun intended) the spirits of his workers and volunteers.

BJP pe-emptive strike: BJP is far too seasoned a political player to let the opposition parties grab all the headlines and the media-time. BJP National President JP Nadda, on Monday, strongly criticized the opposition's actions down south in Bengaluru.

“UPA का गठबंधन भानुमति का कुनबा है। जिसके पास न तो नेता है और न ही नीयत है, न नीति है और न ही फैसला लेने की ताकत है। ये भ्रष्टाचार और घोटालों का टोला है।”

( https://twitter.com/BJP4India/status/1680929216085508096?s=20 )

"The alliance of UPA is the family of Bhanumati. It neither has a leader nor any intent; neither nor any policy nor any authority to take decisions. It is a bunch of corrupt scamsters," he says.

He emphasized that the NDA, headed by Narendra Modi, is solely driven by national interest (Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas). In contrast, the UPA is motivated by the self-interest of its leaders, most of whom benefit from nepotism and dynastic politics.

He disclosed that ahead of the Monsoon Session of Parliament starting on July 20, 2023, leaders of the 38 parties that comprise the NDA will meet in Delhi on Tuesday. This will demonstrate the strength of the alliance and also convey that the BJP values its allies and practices a consultative style of governance, rather than a dictatorial one.

Notably, Sardar Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa of the Sanyukt Akali Dal has been invited and will attend, but the Shiromani Akali Dal, led by Sukhbir Singh Badal, remains isolated. It was not expected for them to attend the Bengaluru Conclave, and they are also excluded from the NDA meeting in New Delhi, as they formally exited the NDA due to the Farmers Agitation and contested the 2022 Punjab Vidhan Sabha elections against the BJP.

Meanwhile, Chirag Paswan, son of the late Dalit leader Ram Vilas Paswan, formally meets with JP Nadda on Monday, and his outfit Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) formally joins the NDA. Although his political outfit may not be significant in itself, his presence, along with RCP Singh, the former JD(U) National President now estranged from his mentor Nitish Kumar, would incrementally strengthen the BJP, especially in Bihar, which contributes 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha.

The Karnataka Fox: Amid speculation about Janata Dal (Secular) striking a deal with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), party leader Kumaraswamy states on Monday that he has not received invitations from either the NDA or the UPA. This adds to the unfolding political drama with opposition parties meeting in Bengaluru on July 17 and 18, while the BJP-led NDA convenes a meeting in New Delhi on July 18. Karnataka-watchers say that he’s a clever politician and the state elections being over, he would keep his cards close to the chest till the Lok Sabha elections, in which the state contributes 29 MPs.

Regional Kshtraps: Similarly, both Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), the CM of Andhra Pradesh as well as the major opposition leader in the state Chandrababu Naidu of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) are not disclosing their position publicly. However, in a bifurcated state that still contributes 25 MPs, both may extract their price in the post-poll scenario in the event a hung Lok Sabha is thrown up. On the other hand, with 17 seats at stake, Telangana’s CM, K. Chandrashekar Rao of Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS, formerly TRS), while stridently opposing the BJP, may not participate in the Bengaluru meet. Odisha’s ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD), eyeing 21 seats in the state, may also continue to maintain its ambiguous stand, although the BJP is the major opposition party in that state.

Easy in concept, difficult in practice: The opposition unity, while easy to put forth in concept, is difficult to execute in practice. For example, will the opposition be able to put up single-joint candidates against the BJP in the four states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand that go to polls in December this year, that is before the Lok Sabha elections? If this cannot be achieved in states where there is no significant regional party, there would be a shadow of doubt whether it shall be possible to do so in the 2024 general elections.

The opposition leaders were also quick to jibe at the NDA’s 38-party meet in Delhi, wondering what happened to the chest-thumping bravado that a single Modi was enough to take on all the opposition leaders (एक एकेला, सब पे भारी). However, as a wag put it: “NDA Unity (एक अकेला) has emerged a force to reckon with; UPA unity, a farce to reckon with.”

My take: The political landscape of the country is currently witnessing a surge in intensity, setting the stage for an even more captivating and thrilling lead-up to the highly anticipated 2024 Lok Sabha elections. As the opposition parties gather in Bengaluru for this significant meeting, expectations are running high, and political enthusiasts are eagerly awaiting any groundbreaking declarations that may emerge from the discussions. While the atmosphere is charged with anticipation, it is important to temper these expectations, as the outcome of this meeting may not deliver the dramatic twists and turns that some are hoping for.

Don’t expect much— but it’s a process: Keep your expectations in check, but progress is underway. As an impartial observer, striving for rationality and objectivity, I must acknowledge that I didn't anticipate any groundbreaking revelations to arise from the Bengaluru gathering. However, the announcements, while modest, surpassed my conservative expectations. The decision to hold the next meeting in Mumbai, with the date to be announced, is an encouraging development from the opposition's standpoint. The establishment of a secretariat in Delhi will bring a sense of organization to the new alliance, enabling swift decision-making without solely relying on future gatherings. “I-N-D-I-A” is anything but still-born.

NDA is cruising along: At present, it is evident that the NDA, under the leadership of Narendra Modi, retains a steadfast momentum that shows no signs of waning. With a strong and unwavering grip on power, the NDA seems poised for a potentially historic third consecutive victory in the 2024 elections. Barring any self-inflicted wounds or unforeseen challenges, their path to success appears smooth and formidable.

The game is not yet over: The stage is set for an exhilarating political showdown as the various factions vie for power and influence. While the opposition parties are determined to disrupt the NDA's dominance, they face an uphill battle in uniting their disparate voices and formulating a cohesive strategy. The road to victory is not an easy one, and the opposition must navigate internal rifts, ideological differences, rebel candidates and regional complexities to pose a formidable challenge to the ruling coalition.

Towards nail-biting climax: As the political saga unfolds, the nation eagerly awaits the next chapters of this captivating narrative. With each twist and turn, power plays and shifting alliances, the future of our country's political landscape takes shape. The stakes are high, and the forthcoming battles will be waged with passion and intensity. As journalists rush to file their reports, behind the scenes, BJP's media strategists huddle to brainstorm in their sleek new office on Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Marg in New Delhi, crafting a new narrative around the emerging acronym. Though subject to top-brass approval, the leading contender is "Indicted Nepotistic Dishonest and Intolerant Autocrats."

In the end, Indian democracy will win: In this dynamic landscape, where alliances shift, strategies evolve, and unexpected events unfold, one thing remains certain—Indian politics is never short of surprises. So buckle up, fellow citizens, as we embark on a thrilling journey towards the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where the fate of the nation hangs in the balance. The winds of change blow, and the political arena becomes an arena of fiery contests and fierce rivalries. Only time will tell which side emerges victorious and who will have the last laugh in this gripping saga of power, ambition, and the pursuit of national destiny.

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2. https://m.timesofindia.com/india/list-26-of-opposition-parties-attending-key-bengaluru-meet/articleshow/101853523.cms