New BJP CM Faces likely in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan
Bringing in new CMs in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh is not a one-off tactical move by the BJP-- it's a part of strategic churning and grooming of leadership.
BJP's Leadership Dynamics in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan
Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Vasundhara Raje Scindia have effectively been ruled out as Chief Ministers of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. This is not a new development, nor do we claim to have access to highly placed sources within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). However, the indications were very much there, right from the stage of allocation of Assembly tickets in these two states.
The Subtle Indicators of Leadership Change
Firstly, the BJP did not announce any Chief Ministerial candidate in advance. This is not a new practice, and one could not infer much from this decision of the Party.
Nevertheless, the broad contours of the shape of things to come were visible in the allocation of tickets – especially when it extended to sitting Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha MPs, some of whom were Cabinet Ministers in the Narendra Modi Government at Delhi. Unlike the Congress Party, which claims to be young in the leadership of Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi, but geriatric in its reactions, the BJP was competing as a party that Shakespeare would have described as “young in limbs, in judgement old.”1
BJP's Strategy for Generational Leadership Change
Just like not retaining leaders beyond the age of 75 in active roles and “promoting” them to the Margdarshak Mandal, the BJP takes active, rather proactive decisions to build up the next layer of generational leadership. This necessarily includes changing the Chief Ministers who have played their innings with distinction. Whether they would be accommodated in gubernatorial assignments or promised Cabinet posts after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is entirely a different matter.
Uncertainty Over New Chief Ministers
Even though the emphatic win of the BJP in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh became known by the afternoon of December 3, till the publishing of this article, there is still no official word regarding who would head the legislative parties in the two states – that is, be the next CM. Late night meetings in respect of Rajasthan continued till almost midnight, without any whiff of what transpired.
Insights from a Wide Cross-section of Feedback
We have been talking to a number of serving as well as retired IAS and IPS officers not only of the two state cadres, but also those belonging to these states and currently serving in Punjab and Haryana. A wide cross-section of feedback leads to an ineluctable deduction that we would see new faces as Chief Ministers of Madhya Pradesh as well as Rajasthan, effectively ruling out Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Vasundhara Raje Scindia.
Reasons Behind the Leadership Shift
Firstly, the very fact that a large number of sitting Lok Sabha MPs, as well as two Union Ministers, have resigned implies that they are likely to play an important role in the new state government.
Just as the BJP regularly rotates its cabinet ministers to perform party functions, sending a Lok Sabha MP to be an MLA is not seen as a demotion but a sign of a more important and elevated role in the state government. This also signals the bringing in of new candidates in the Lok Sabha constituencies that they have vacated, thereby carrying on the churning process further down the line.
Speculations on New Chief Ministerial Faces
It is challenging to speculate who will eventually be anointed as the Chief Minister in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. However, based on discussions with a large section of people, it seems likely that Narendra Singh Tomar and Mahant Balaknath might emerge as the frontrunners for these roles. Narendra Singh Tomar, who resigned as the Union Cabinet Minister in charge of the Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare portfolio, secured a resounding victory from the Dimani Assembly constituency in Morena district of Madhya Pradesh. Meanwhile, Mahant Balaknath, a 39-year-old sitting Lok Sabha MP from the Alwar constituency, has resigned following his election from the Tijara Assembly constituency in Rajasthan. Their resignations and recent electoral successes suggest they are being positioned for significant roles in their respective state governments.
Contrasting Strategies of BJP and Congress
Whether this forecast turns out to be correct or not, shall only be revealed in the next few days, but one thing is very clear. The motto in the BJP is “The old order changeth, yielding place to the new…”, whereas for the grand old party, namely, the Congress Party, it is more like: “The more things change, the more they are the same.” When you rely upon old faces and jaded war-horses like Kamal Nath, and Ashok Gehlot, the latter having had the audacity to turn down the offer for Congress National President’s post, such lacklustre results were only to be expected.
The Countdown to the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections
The countdown for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has already begun, and the INDI alliance appears to be under tremendous stress, if not already in tatters, even before the game has begun. Unless the Congress leadership takes progressive, expeditious, bold, and magnanimous decisions, the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections could well have been already decided. But then history repeats itself because man repeats his mistakes.
Merchant of Venice, scroll in the Golden Casket.