साँप, सीढ़ी and Statistics: Civil Servants की पटारी।
Goodhart's Law and the Challenges of Measures and Targets in India's Bureaucracy.
Goodhart's Law: Challenges of Measures and Metrics in India's Bureaucracy
In the backdrop of colonial British India, where cobras slithered through narrow lanes, an anecdote emerges, illuminating the challenges of bureaucracy. To curb the cobra menace in Delhi, British rulers offered cash rewards for cobra skins. This led to a perverse incentive where locals began breeding cobras for profit. When the reward system was exposed and discontinued, breeders released the snakes, amplifying the original problem. This predicament serves as a real-world manifestation of Goodhart's Law, elegantly formulated by British economist Charles Goodhart in 1975: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure."
Delving deeper into Goodhart's observation, this law sheds light on the unintended consequences that arise when a single metric, intended as a measure of success, is used as a target for policy. In the realm of economics and econometrics, it highlights the nuanced interplay between policy intentions and outcomes. While a metric might initially represent a robust correlation or behavior, the moment it becomes a policy target, actors within the system adapt, often in unpredictable ways, rendering the original metric less relevant or even counterproductive.
Interplay of Efficiency, Effectiveness, and Impact in Civil Services
In the intricate architecture of the Indian Civil Services, efficiency (resource optimization), effectiveness (outcomes aligned with objectives), and impact (broader societal change) are paramount. Simultaneously, officials face the balancing act of quality, quantity, physical targets (concrete results), and financial targets (utilizing budgetary allocations).
Ponder these scenarios to understand Goodhart’s Law's repercussions:
Performance Metrics: If bureaucratic efficacy is tied to maximizing budgetary allocation utilization, there's a risk of launching a sheer number of projects without ensuring meaningful physical outcomes, essentially trading quality for quantity.
Promotion Criteria: If promotions ride on tenure or budgetary prowess, innovation's spark may dim, possibly diminishing the quality and impact of service. And, when the much sought after empanelment is decided through so-called transparent 360°evaluation criteria, they feel lost1.
Red Tape Reduction: Swift processes may bolster financial and physical targets, but this haste may undercut project quality and sustainability.
Consequences and Silver Linings
Juggling these multifaceted targets can yield growth and challenges. Some strategies may yield superficial wins while masking underlying inefficiencies. But it can also sculpt officers into multifaceted administrators, competent in diverse arenas.
RFD's Vision and its Conundrums
Dr. Prajapati Trivedi, a private-sector efficiency maven serving in the Cabinet Secretariat at the Secretary rank, championed the “Results Framework Document” (RFD) during the Manmohan Singh administration. Despite its potential, RFD encountered hurdles. Political priorities not infrequently shifted during the year, creating dissonance between metrics and ground realities, especially when financial outlays overshadowed tangible achievements.
Why RFD's Potential Remained Unrealized
Designed to outmanoeuvre Goodhart's Law by embracing diverse measurable goals, RFD faced inconsistencies. The balancing act between financial commitments, tangible outcomes, and the inherent trade-offs between quality and quantity led to its well-deserved jettisoning under the Modi regime.
PRAGATI’s Streamlined Approach
Prime Minister Narendra Modi unveiled PRAGATI (Pro-Active Governance And Timely Implementation) - प्रगति . Espousing Pareto’s Principle, PRAGATI emphasizes pivotal result areas2. By spotlighting projects with transformative potential, it surmounts inter-departmental and interstate coordination challenges, ensuring diligent oversight. The essence of PRAGATI is to prioritize impactful projects, signifying that a select few schemes can drive monumental change.
Summing up
In the dynamic landscape of governance, merely hitting benchmarks or achieving set targets doesn't necessarily translate into genuine progress or public welfare. Effective governance, particularly in a vibrant democracy like India, demands an approach that aligns with the spirit and aspirations of its citizens. PRAGATI's success serves as a testimony to the need for such a refined strategy: one where the focus isn't spread thin across a myriad of schemes but centered on impactful projects capable of driving monumental change.
Yet, the path to efficient governance isn't solely paved with metrics and targets. In a democratic polity, it's essential to meld the empirical with the emotional. The success of any governance model hinges on its responsiveness to public needs, its adaptability to evolving challenges, and its ability to craft policies that resonate with the people's hearts.
Going Forward
Moreover, as India strides into the future, the paradigm of success will increasingly revolve around consultative processes, where public perceptions are not just acknowledged but integrated into policy-making. Balancing promises for the future, managing citizens' expectations, and delivering tangible outcomes are not just bureaucratic challenges but democratic imperatives. In this quest, the lessons from Goodhart's Law and initiatives like PRAGATI offer invaluable insights to steer governance towards true, holistic success.
https://theprint.in/opinion/loopholes-have-failed-the-new-360-assessment-to-empanel-ias-officers-it-needs-reforms/756467/
https://www.pmindia.gov.in/en/tag/pragati/