India's Brahmaputra Hydropower Projects and Bangladesh's Downstream Concerns

India's Hydropower Projects and the Concerns of Lower Riparian States: A Balancing Act.

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Taming Brahmaputra, Assam’s Sorrow

Water disputes between nations often arise from shared resources, particularly when the upper riparian state, which controls the source, undertakes large infrastructural projects that may affect downstream water flow. India's ambitious hydropower projects on the Brahmaputra River and its tributaries in Arunachal Pradesh have triggered concerns in neighbouring Bangladesh, a lower riparian state. Bangladesh is apprehensive that these projects could significantly impact its water security by affecting both environmental stability and social structures. While India's energy and flood-control ambitions are legitimate, such endeavours require greater responsibility and consultation to maintain regional harmony.

The Elusive Teesta Waters Accord

The water-sharing dynamic between India and Bangladesh has been a sensitive issue for years, with the Teesta Waters Accord serving as a critical point of contention. The Teesta River, crucial for the agriculture-dependent northern regions of Bangladesh, has yet to see a formal agreement between the two countries despite prolonged negotiations. Under Sheikh Hasina's leadership, Bangladesh and India enjoyed relatively stable relations, and there were high hopes for finalising the Teesta Accord. However, political roadblocks, particularly at the state level in India, have stalled the agreement, adding to Bangladesh's growing concerns over India's broader water-sharing commitments.

Change of Regime in Bangladesh

With the recent change in government in Dhaka, it remains uncertain whether the collaborative spirit that existed under Hasina’s regime will continue. The new leadership in Bangladesh might adopt a more cautious and assertive stance, especially regarding the Brahmaputra hydropower projects and the unresolved Teesta issue. The strong bilateral ties built under Hasina’s administration may take time to re-establish, requiring careful diplomacy on both sides. India's need to balance its energy aspirations with Bangladesh’s water security concerns will be crucial in determining whether this shared resource becomes a point of cooperation or contention once again.

India's Major Investment in Brahmaputra Hydropower Projects

India has recently taken significant steps to advance its hydropower ambitions in the northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, committing $1 billion to expedite the construction of 12 hydropower projects on tributaries of the Brahmaputra River. In a move aimed at boosting the region's energy capacity, the federal finance ministry approved up to ₹750 crore ($89.85 million) in financial assistance for each project. The state government signed a memorandum of agreement (MoA) in August 2023 with three central state-owned power companies—North Eastern Electric Power Corporation Limited (NEEPCO), Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Ltd (SJVN), and the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation Ltd (NHPC)—to generate a total of 11,517 megawatts (MW) of electricity through these projects. This large-scale initiative underscores India’s commitment to developing its hydropower potential as part of its broader strategy for energy security and sustainability.

Tapping the Brahmaputra's Tributaries

These 12 projects form only a small part of India’s larger vision for Arunachal Pradesh, which has a total estimated hydropower potential of over 57,000MW. The projects are strategically planned on various tributaries of major rivers like the Siang, Dibang, and Subansiri. For instance, the 1,000MW Naying project on the Siyom River and the 680MW Attunli project on the Tangon River will harness the power of the Brahmaputra’s tributaries to generate electricity. Additionally, the 1,800MW Kamala project, which will be built on the Kamala River, illustrates the scale of India's ambition to unlock the hydropower potential of this region. With plans to construct at least 135 more hydroelectric power projects on Brahmaputra's tributaries, India is positioning itself as a major player in clean energy generation, while simultaneously raising concerns among its lower riparian neighbours about water management and downstream impacts.

India's Hydropower Drive: A Necessity or Overreach?

India’s investment in hydropower development, particularly in its northeastern regions, aims to harness the Brahmaputra's vast hydropower potential, estimated at over 57,000 MW. The government has approved multiple large-scale projects, allocating them to various public sector enterprises. Hydropower is vital to India's energy security and helps mitigate the country’s reliance on fossil fuels. These projects also serve as a geopolitical statement, reinforcing India’s sovereignty over regions that China has intermittently laid claim to.

However, while India’s motivations are clear, the unilateral approach to these projects has raised eyebrows internationally. As these dams are built on a river that flows into Bangladesh, the downstream impacts are a cause for grave concern.

Bangladesh's Water Security at Risk from India's Hydropower Projects?

Bangladesh’s concerns over India's upstream hydropower projects on the Brahmaputra are multifaceted, centring primarily on water security and environmental impact. According to a study by the US-based Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), the Brahmaputra supplies 75% of Bangladesh's river water during the dry season, a critical resource for its agricultural and human security. However, Bangladesh already faces a 25% deficit in its required water intake, a situation that could worsen due to India's dam-building activities and water diversion projects upstream.

Environmental and Infrastructure Challenges Amplify Bangladesh’s Concerns

Beyond water shortages, Bangladesh also faces the heightened risk of flash floods during the monsoon season, as India's release of stored water from its dams could cause flooding in densely populated, low-lying areas. The broader ecological impacts, such as disruptions to local ecosystems and biodiversity, along with potential displacement of communities, add to Bangladesh’s concerns. Moreover, India’s plans to transmit electricity generated from these hydropower projects through Bangladesh, despite the northeastern region’s limited demand, have sparked further controversy. The narrow Siliguri Corridor, also known as the Chicken's Neck, poses technical challenges due to existing infrastructure, adding strain to Bangladesh’s own infrastructure and security. Bangladesh, already self-sufficient in energy until 2030, questions the necessity of such transmission lines, creating an additional layer of diplomatic tension between the two countries.

The Role of International Water Law and the Importance of Consultation

International water law, underpinned by principles such as equitable and reasonable use and the obligation not to cause significant harm, calls for cooperation between riparian states. Bangladesh has consistently advocated for using established diplomatic frameworks, like the Joint River Commission (JRC), to resolve water-sharing disputes and ensure that its interests are taken into account. However, India’s unilateral decisions on the Brahmaputra have been perceived as dismissive of this collaborative approach, intensifying concerns in Dhaka.

As the upper riparian state, India carries greater responsibility. Given the shared nature of the Brahmaputra, India should adopt a more consultative stance, engaging with Bangladesh not just to placate its concerns but to actively incorporate them into project planning. A holistic, sustainable approach to managing the river’s resources could benefit both nations, provided trust and transparency are prioritised.

Water as a Diplomatic Tool: The Geopolitical Angle

While water security is a pressing issue in itself, it is inextricably linked to broader geopolitical dynamics in South Asia. India’s position as the upper riparian state provides it with considerable leverage over its neighbours. Treaties, such as the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 between India and Pakistan, exemplify how water can become both a tool of diplomacy and a potential source of conflict. Although the treaty has held for decades, India’s recent moves to renegotiate certain key provisions point to the enduring complexities of such agreements.

In the context of the Brahmaputra, long-term treaties between India and Bangladesh should not be treated as diplomatic bargaining chips. While geopolitical realities cannot be ignored, essential resources like water must not be used as leverage in negotiations concerning trade, border disputes, or broader regional security issues. Stable water-sharing agreements are fundamental to peace and cooperation and must stand above transient political and diplomatic fluctuations.

The Indus Waters Treaty: Lessons for the Future?

India's move to renegotiate parts of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan signals its shifting approach to water diplomacy. This renegotiation, driven by geopolitical tensions, raises concerns for other water-sharing agreements in the region, including with Bangladesh. If the precedent set by the Indus Treaty holds, future agreements might increasingly be influenced by regional power dynamics rather than mutual necessity.

However, India's attempts to revisit the treaty should be viewed through the lens of evolving needs and realities. While treaties formed decades ago addressed the concerns of their time, they may not be adequate to meet the growing demands of modern-day water management. India has the right to seek adjustments that reflect current challenges, but these changes must be made transparently and collaboratively, ensuring that the downstream nation’s interests are not undermined¹.

Conclusion: The Need for Sustainable Cooperation

Water disputes are not new in South Asia, but their importance has increased as the demand for resources grows alongside environmental degradation and climate change. India, as the upper riparian state, must take a more responsible and consultative approach in managing the Brahmaputra, acknowledging the legitimate concerns of Bangladesh and other downstream nations. This means not only adhering to existing treaties but also engaging in proactive diplomacy to ensure that water security does not become a contentious issue in future geopolitical negotiations.

Transparent dialogue, mutual respect, and a commitment to sustainable development can transform water from a source of conflict into an avenue for cooperation in South Asia. By fostering trust and creating inclusive frameworks for managing shared rivers, India and Bangladesh can ensure long-term stability in a region already fraught with challenges.

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