Akali Dal-BJP Alliance in Punjab: Has the 'engagement' broken?
Akali Dal-BJP Alliance in Punjab: "Will they wed, or have they already broken up?"
Revisiting the SAD-BJP Alliance Engagement
On 29th February, we published an article in "The KBS Chronicle" captioned "Akali Dal-BJP Re-marriage in Punjab: 'Will they, Won’t they?'" The instant piece is essentially in continuation thereof and those who are well-versed with the ongoing developments in Indian and Punjab politics may continue to read. The readers seeking a more detailed context or background information, may like to peruse our previous article, accessible through the link provided in the first footnote below1, although this article makes a complete reading in itself.
Ongoing Uncertainty in Political Alliances
Twelve days later, we revisit the scenario, echoing Harold Wilson's remark that "A week is a long time in politics." Despite several developments, the pivotal question concerning the potential SAD-BJP alliance in Punjab remains on everyone's lips: "Will they, won't they?" Although these days have been eventful, the fundamental question about the formation of the alliance remains unanswered, underscoring the continuing uncertainty in the political landscape.
A Tweet Sparks Analysis
The day following our article's publication, Mrs. Harsimrat Kaur Badal, the incumbent Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) MP from the Bathinda Lok Sabha constituency, shared a tweet in Punjabi on March 1, 2024. This tweet, translated below in English, stirred significant discussion and analysis within political circles and among the public, highlighting the nuanced communication strategies deployed by political figures in Punjab.
“I am proud to share that at Bathinda AIIMS, high-end medical care, which normally costs lakhs of rupees, is now available for just 10 rupees.
People of Bathinda and neighboring states are getting relief with this modern treatment.
#AIIMSBathinda #BathindaDiBadliNuhar #RukheNaTarakkiDiRaftaar #TuhadiNimaniSewadar”
Deciphering the Underlying Message
Upon initial review, we perceived Mrs. Harsimrat Kaur Badal's tweet as a veiled apology in light of her somewhat controversial remarks regrading the ongoing farmers agitation during the virtual inauguration of AIIMS Bathinda by Prime Minister Modi on February 25, where she was personally present. Further scrutiny, however, revealed that she did not attribute any credit to the Central Government for providing high-quality medical treatment at virtually no cost—a facility made possible only through significant annual financial support from the Government of India. Moreover, there was a conspicuous absence of any direct appreciation for Prime Minister Modi. The tweet, crafted in Punjabi and aimed predominantly at the rural electorate of Punjab, seemed to subtly claim credit for the state-of-the-art medical facility, as inferred from the hashtags used.
Strategic Merger and Political Calculations
A significant development that created a few ripples in the political waters was the formal integration of the Shiromani Akali Dal (Sanyukt), led by the esteemed Akali Dal figure and former Union Minister, Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa, into the Sukhbir Singh Badal-helmed Shiromani Akali Dal on March 5. Dhindsa, a highly respected leader within the Akali ranks and second only to Parkash Singh Badal in seniority during his lifetime, had previously distanced himself from his original party to establish a separate faction. His party aligned with the BJP for the Punjab Legislative Assembly elections in February 2022, alongside Captain Amarinder Singh's nascent Punjab Lok Congress. Despite their efforts, both the Badal and Dhindsa factions, Captain’s outfit and the BJP achieved minimal success, securing only a handful of seats amidst the overwhelming victory of the AAP, highlighting the complex and shifting allegiances within Punjab's political landscape.
Analyzing the 'Homecoming' and Its Implications
The return of Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa to the Shiromani Akali Dal, often referred to as 'ghar wapsi', had been announced a few days prior to its formalization. Political analysts in Punjab widely regarded this reunion as a strategic precursor, possibly facilitated by the BJP, for any potential collaboration with the Akalis. Nonetheless, we had adopted a more circumspect stance from the outset, suggesting that this move might signify the distancing of the Dhindsa-led faction's alliance from the BJP. This speculation was grounded in the observation that the Dhindsa faction's political influence was largely limited to the Lehragaga-Moonak-Sunam belt within Sangrur district, thus casting doubts on the broader strategic value of this merger for future political configurations.
Alliance Rumours Amidst Conflicting Signals
A few insiders from both the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suggested that an alliance was imminent. Contrary to these indications, we received conflicting information that led us to question the solidity of this arrangement. Reflecting our cautious stance, we tweeted on the morning of March 7: "BJP - SAD alliance in Punjab. Almost done?" This was accompanied by a speculative distribution of constituencies between the two parties, as received from the insiders: BJP potentially contesting in Amritsar, Gurdaspur, Hoshiarpur (SC), Patiala, and Ludhiana, and SAD in Anandpur Sahib, Bathinda, Sangrur, Jalandhar (SC), Fatehgarh Sahib (SC), Faridkot (SC), Ferozepur, and Khadoor Sahib. Our use of a question mark underscored the uncertainty and the dynamic nature of political alliances, amidst the circulating rumours and insider claims.
Lingering Uncertainty and a Missed Opportunity
As days passed, the anticipated formal announcement of the SAD-BJP alliance remained elusive, with no clear signals emerging from either side, suggesting the negotiation may have encountered unexpected hurdles. The focus then shifted to the Bhog ceremony, marking the first death anniversary of the late Sardar Parkash Singh Badal, scheduled for March 10 in his ancestral village of Badal, in Punjab's Muktsar district. Many speculated that this event would serve as an ideal backdrop for revealing the alliance. Contrary to these expectations, the ceremony saw no attendance from senior BJP leaders or Central Government Ministers, with only the Punjab BJP President, Sunil Jakhar, present to represent the party. The absence of senior BJP leader and former Punjab Chief Minister, Captain Amarinder Singh, was particularly notable given his strong advocacy for an alliance between the SAD and BJP, adding a layer of intrigue to the ongoing speculation.
Tribute Without Commitment
Sunil Jakhar, representing the BJP, paid an extensive homage to the late Badal Sahib at the ceremony, highlighting his role as a beacon of Hindu-Sikh unity during Punjab's tumultuous periods of terrorism. He lauded Badal Sahib's courage in forging an alliance with the BJP in 1997, a partnership that led to three successful terms of their joint governance in Punjab. However, Jakhar refrained from sharing his personal stance on the proposed SAD-BJP alliance, perhaps adhering to prior instructions from the BJP high command, which had reportedly cautioned him against making public statements after he had voiced his opinion on this inchoate tie-up on a local television channel earlier. The absence of any senior BJP figures at the Bhog ceremony was noted by observers as a potential sign of distancing from the SAD, unless this was a strategic move designed to leverage more favourable terms in the ongoing negotiations.
Advocates for Alliance
Proponents of the alliance, including Captain Amarinder Singh, who has been lobbying through a distinguished albeit retired BJP leader from Rajasthan, posit that a reunion between the SAD and BJP would be mutually beneficial. They contend that such an alliance would not only reinforce the partnership but also serve as a powerful testament to the BJP's commitment to the diverse cultural fabric of India, countering the accusations of promoting a "Hindu Rashtra" by demonstrating sensitivity as well as affinity towards the Sikh minority in Punjab. Advocates believe that this strategic collaboration could significantly increase their chances, potentially securing at least ten out of the thirteen Lok Sabha seats available in Punjab, thereby solidifying their political foothold in the region.
Concerns Against the Alliance
Critics within the BJP caution against the alliance, pointing to the diminishing support for Sukhbir Badal's SAD following the 2022 elections. The aftermath of the Kisan Agitation and the tragic death of 21-year-old Shub Karan Singh from a bullet wound have further dented SAD's popularity. Moreover, the traditional Jat Sikh rural vote base of SAD is unlikely to shift allegiance to the BJP, with predictions of it being split between the Congress Party and AAP. Additionally, the Hindu demographic in Punjab, already leaning towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi, may redirect its support to the Congress in constituencies where the BJP refrains from fielding candidates due to the alliance, thereby diluting the intended political advantage for SAD within the alliance framework.
Evaluating the Alliance's Implications
The contemplation of an alliance between the SAD and BJP seems to present a paradoxical situation, offering limited benefits to the BJP while posing significant risks. Ironically, the inadvertent beneficiary of such an alliance could be the Congress Party, which remains unaligned with the AAP in Punjab, even as they have arrived at seat-sharing understanding in Delhi, Chandigarh, Gujarat and Goa. The proposed candidature of three members from the Badal family for the Lok Sabha—Sukhbir Badal (Ferozepur), Harsimrat Badal (Bathinda), and Bikram Majithia (Khadoor Sahib)—from the SAD's share, might place the BJP in an awkward position, especially given its critique of the Congress for nepotism and dynastic politics. Moreover, the enthusiastic endorsement by Captain Amarinder Singh of the alliance might be viewed through a prism of personal interest, given the potential candidacy of his wife, Preneet Kaur, the current MP, or his daughter, for the BJP ticket in Patiala, suggesting that familial ties could be influencing his advocacy rather than a dispassionate analysis of the political landscape.
Anticipation and Speculation: The Final Verdict
The question of whether the SAD and BJP will forge an alliance remains unanswered, leaving political observers and stakeholders in suspense. As the political community awaits the release of the second BJP candidate list, the outcome of this potential partnership, including its terms and conditions, is shrouded in uncertainty. On the surface, the political environment may seem tranquil, yet the implications of such an alliance hold significant weight for key figures like Sukhbir Badal, Captain Amarinder Singh, and to a lesser degree, Sunil Jakhar. For the broader political arena, the discussion might appear more theoretical, given that Punjab's 13 parliamentary seats represent only a fraction of the total 543 seats in the Lok Sabha. Nevertheless, the anticipation is palpable, with insiders hinting at a possible major announcement by 15th March 2024. As we stand on the cusp of potentially transformative political developments, Captain Amarinder Singh celebrates a quiet birthday and the BJP’s Central Election Committee is already meeting, all eyes are on the unfolding dynamics, waiting to see how the situation evolves.
