Punjab's Mini-General Election: Stage Set for 5-Assembly Bye-Elections

Retaining these seats will be a challenge for all of the political parties, given the uncertain political climate in the state.

Stage Set for 5-Assembly Bye-Elections

Barely has the dust settled on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and Punjab appears to be heading towards five Vidhan Sabha bye-elections that may serve as a mini-general election in the state. This significant political event is poised to reshape the state's political dynamics as five crucial Assembly constituencies prepare for bye-elections likely to be held in October 2024. These elections will probably coincide with the polls in Haryana, Maharashtra, and J&K, adding to the political fervour.

Ex-MLA’s Take

"Five bye-polls are coming up, representing geographically and numerically a mini general election. Expect more independent successes and further marginalisation of the Shiromani Akali Dal," said a former Congress MLA, who recently returned to the mother party after a brief sojourn elsewhere. "However, the winds of change are multidirectional, and ‘taksalis’ benefit significantly from NRI funding," he added.

Results of AAP Cabinet Ministers in 2024 Lok Sabha Elections

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) saw mixed results in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Punjab. Of the five AAP Cabinet Ministers who contested, only Gurmeet Singh Meet Hayer secured a victory. Here is a detailed look at their performances:

1. Gurmeet Singh Khuddian (Agriculture Minister): Lost in Bathinda to Harsimrat Kaur Badal (SAD) by 50,000 votes.

2. Laljit Singh Bhullar (Transport Minister): Finished third in Khadoor Sahib, behind independent Amritpal Singh and Congress's Kulbir Singh Zira.

3. Kuldeep Singh Dhaliwal (NRI Affairs Minister): Lost in Amritsar to Congress's Gurjeet Singh Aujla by 40,301 votes.

4. Dr. Balbir Singh (Health Minister): Lost in Patiala to Congress's Dr. Dharamvir Gandhi by 14,831 votes.

5. Gurmeet Singh Meet Hayer: Won in Sangrur, defeating Congress's Sukhpal Singh Khaira by 1,72,560 votes.

In summary, out of the five AAP Cabinet Ministers, four lost their respective contests, underscoring a challenging political landscape for AAP in Punjab. Overall, AAP was able to win only in 3 of the total of 13 seats, including the Sangrur seat, wrested by Meet Hayer from Simranjit Singh Mann.

Expected Bye-Elections in Punjab Vidhan Sabha

The outcomes of the Lok Sabha elections necessitate bye-elections in five Punjab Vidhan Sabha seats:

1. Barnala: Gurmeet Singh Meet Hayer’s victory in Sangrur means his Assembly seat in Barnala will be vacated.

2. Chabbewal (SC): Congress MLA Dr. Raj Kumar Chabbewal’s win in Hoshiarpur leads to a bye-election in Chabbewal.

3. Gidderbaha: Punjab Congress president Amrinder Singh Raja Warring’s win in Ludhiana necessitates a bye-election in Gidderbaha.

4. Dera Baba Nanak: Former Deputy Chief Minister Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa’s win in Gurdaspur results in a bye-election in Dera Baba Nanak.

5. Jalandhar West: AAP MLA Sheetal Angural’s resignation (and its acceptance) creates a bye-election in Jalandhar West.

Historical Context and Current Political Scenario

The Lok Sabha results in Punjab have often diverged from Vidhan Sabha outcomes. A review of past election results highlights this pattern:

• 1999: SAD + BJP alliance dominated.

• 2004: SAD + BJP won 11 seats (SAD: 8, BJP: 3); INC secured 2 seats.

• 2009: INC won the majority.

• 2014: SAD + BJP won 6 seats (SAD: 4, BJP: 2); AAP won 4 seats; INC secured 3.

• 2019: INC secured 8 seats; SAD + BJP 4; AAP 1.

• 2024: INC won 7 seats; AAP 3; SAD 1; Independents 2.

In the 2022 Punjab Assembly elections, AAP achieved a landslide victory with 92 out of 117 seats. However, the 2024 Lok Sabha results show a stark contrast, with AAP leading in only 32 out of the 117 Assembly segments, losing in 60 segments they had previously won.

Analysis of AAP's Performance

AAP's significant losses in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections highlight a challenging phase for the party. Key observations include:

• AAP led in only 32 of the 117 Assembly segments, losing 60 segments they had previously secured.

• Nine out of 15 AAP Cabinet Ministers failed to secure leads in their Assembly segments.

• In Ludhiana, AAP was wiped out in all 9 Assembly segments, except Dakha.

Poll Figures: Implications for Upcoming Bye-Elections

The poll figures are a statistician's delight, but these cannot always be extrapolated to meaningfully predict the outcome of future elections. Moreover, the issues and alliances in Lok Sabha general elections and Vidhan Sabha bye-elections can be significantly different, as local issues tend to dominate in the latter. However, the imminent bye-elections are close in time, and we can expect the poll figures from these five assembly segments, as derived from the 2024 Lok Sabha results, to faintly outline the shape of things to come.

Party-wise Votes Polled in Five Crucial Vidhan Sabha Segments

The following are the party-wise figures of the polled votes in each of these five Vidhan Sabha segments.

In the Dera Baba Nanak Assembly segment of the Gurdaspur Lok Sabha constituency, former Deputy Chief Minister Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa of the Congress party emerged victorious. In this segment, the INC garnered 48,198 votes, leading the pack, followed closely by AAP with 44,259 votes. Meanwhile, SAD and BJP lagged significantly behind, securing 17,099 and 5,971 votes, respectively.

Jalandhar West Assembly segment, which has fallen vacant due to the resignation of the incumbent MLA, is a part of the Jalandhar (SC) Lok Sabha constituency where former Punjab CM Charanjit Singh Channi won convincingly. In this primarily urban setting, the Congress secured 44,394 votes, and the BJP followed closely with 42,837 votes, making it a neck-to-neck race. AAP trailed behind with 15,629 votes, while SAD came in a distant last with only 2,623 votes.

In the Barnala segment of the Sangrur Lok Sabha constituency, young AAP Cabinet Minister Gurmeet (Meet) Hayer emerged victorious, securing a massive 37,674 votes, as it is his home assembly segment. While the BJP garnered 19,218 votes and the Congress received 15,176 votes, the candidate who captured second place was the sitting MP Simranjit Singh Mann, with 22,161 votes. SAD trailed significantly, securing only 5,724 votes.

In the Gidderbaha Assembly segment, currently represented by the Punjab State Congress President Raja Warring—who won the Lok Sabha poll from Ludhiana—there was a close photo-finish between the traditional political parties. AAP secured 20,310 votes, Congress garnered 20,273 votes, and SAD received 19,721 votes. However, significantly ahead was the independent candidate Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa, who emerged victorious from the Faridkot (SC) seat, capturing 32,423 votes in this segment.

The Chabbewal Assembly segment in the Hoshiarpur (SC) Lok Sabha constituency saw a decisive victory for the AAP nominee, Dr. Raj Kumar Chabbewal, who is the sitting MLA and the winning candidate in the current elections, polling a massive chunk of 44,933 votes. In comparison, the INC secured 18,162 votes, while the SAD and BJP lagged significantly behind with 11,935 and 9,472 votes, respectively.

Summing Up and Looking Forward

The forthcoming bye-elections in Punjab's five Assembly seats will serve as a litmus test for the AAP government. While these elections cannot be seen as a referendum on the Bhagwant Mann administration, their outcomes will have significant political implications. AAP's performance will either bolster its standing or provide opposition parties with grounds to challenge the ruling government. These bye-elections will also indicate which of the traditional political parties can retain their relevance, and the performance of the Sukhbir Badal-led SAD will be closely watched as its vote share plummeted to an all-time low of 13.42%. Similarly, it will be of particular interest, especially in Gidderbaha, whether the 'panthic' surge witnessed in the Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot (SC) Lok Sabha constituencies was fleeting or indicative of a deeper entrenchment, especially in rural areas.

The local electorate's grievances, candidate selection, and concurrent local elections, such as those for Gram Panchayats and even the SGPC, will all play crucial roles in these bye-elections, ensuring that Punjab's political landscape remains dynamic and unpredictable as the state moves towards the 2027 Vidhan Sabha elections. How events will unfold remains to be seen, but we will continue our endeavour to present our humble analysis on the state, in the days and weeks to come.

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