Punjab Lok Sabha Elections 2024

2024 Lok Sabha Elections in Punjab: Stakes and Implications for Major Contenders.

Stakes and Implications for Major Contenders

The polling for the 2024 Lok Sabha election in Punjab is scheduled to be held on June 1, 2024, as part of the final phase of the nationwide elections. This election will determine the 13 Members of Parliament from Punjab who will join the 18th Lok Sabha. Despite representing a small fraction of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, the stakes are high for all four major contenders: the Indian National Congress (INC), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD).

In the last Lok Sabha elections held in May 2019, the INC had emerged as the dominant party in Punjab, winning 8 out of the 13 seats. The SAD and BJP each secured 2 seats, while AAP managed to win 1 seat. Conversely, in the 2022 Vidhan Sabha elections, AAP swept the state, winning 92 of the 117 seats, leaving SAD and BJP in political wilderness with 3 and 2 seats respectively. Since then, the political landscape in Punjab has seen significant changes, particularly in view of the changed political climate of the state and the country. This includes defections and by-elections that have altered the dynamics among the major parties.

Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)

A victory for AAP would serve as a resounding vote of confidence, allowing the party to continue its current policies focused on education and healthcare, while also addressing farmers' issues. Conversely, a rout could trigger calls for the party to seek a fresh mandate for the Vidhan Sabha, despite elections being scheduled for 2027. This could lead to internal dissensions, especially given that AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal would, in all probability, be in jail on the day of the results. The performance of AAP candidates who are also ministers will be crucial; victories would necessitate their resignation from the state cabinet, while defeats could prompt demands for their removal—a lose-lose situation for them individually.

Indian National Congress (INC)

A victory for the Congress would signal a strong possibility of reclaiming power in the 2027 Vidhan Sabha elections, energising the party’s rank and file. However, this could also exacerbate internal tussles, particularly between leaders like Partap Bajwa, the current Leader of the Opposition in the Vidhan Sabha, and Raja Warring, the State Congress President, both positioning themselves as CMs-in-waiting. The party would then need to play a responsible opposition role, waiting for the ruling AAP to make mistakes and capitalising on them as the clock ticks towards the 2027 state elections. A lacklustre performance, on the other hand, would create an atmosphere of despondency in the state cadre, especially given that the Congress Party is not expected to fare very well at the national level in general.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)

The BJP, contesting independently after the dissolution of its alliance with SAD, may not win more than 2 or 3 seats. However, the party will closely analyse its vote share and performance across assembly constituencies, as the overall national performance of the BJP will also be significant. If Prime Minister Modi retains power, candidates like former Indian ambassador to the USA, Taranjit Singh Sandhu, contesting from Amritsar, could secure cabinet positions through the Rajya Sabha route, even if they lose in the elections, ensuring Punjab's representation in the central government.

Despite the dissolution of its alliance with SAD, the BJP appears to still be experiencing withdrawal symptoms. The Sehajdhari Sikh Party, registered with the Election Commission and advocating for the restoration of voting rights for Sehajdhari Sikhs in the SGPC elections, has extended unconditional support to the BJP in Haryana and Himachal Pradesh, and is likely to do so for Chandigarh, today. However, the Punjab BJP leadership remains hesitant to accept this support, reflecting lingering uncertainties within the party's strategy.

Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)

Following its formal divorce with the BJP, SAD is striving to re-establish itself as a "panthic" party, advocating for the core values of Sikhs, farmers, and Punjabis, in general. With only 3 out of 117 seats in the last state assembly elections and the patriarch, the Late Parkash Singh Badal, having lost, the party’s vote share performance and vote share will be critical. Despite murmurs of dissent, Sukhbir Badal has continued to hold onto the SAD President post.

A victory for Harsimrat Kaur Badal in Bathinda and its candidate Virsa Singh Valtoha in the highly significant Khadoor Sahib seat is crucial for the party. If the NSA-detained and controversial Amritpal Singh wins Khadoor Sahib from inside jail, it would seriously undermine SAD's claim to be the panthic party of Punjab. A loss in Bathinda would be a double whammy for Sukhbir Badal, potentially leading to louder voices within the party for his resignation. This scenario could potentially elevate the young and dynamic Bikram Singh Majithia, the Party's General Secretary and Sukhbir’s brother-in-law, as a more credible face of SAD.

Key Constituency of Sangrur and Political Dynamics

The Sangrur seat holds significant importance, being the home district of Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann. The fierce contest between incumbent MP Simranjit Singh Mann—who won the seat surprisingly in a by-election months after it was vacated by Bhagwant Mann—and Congress' Sukhpal Singh Khaira, who is adopting a hardcore stance, will be closely watched. Additionally, the voting behaviour of the Dhindsa faction—whose annoyance with Sukhbir Badal is no secret—could be a determining factor. Furthermore, the influence of the young and dynamic Minister Meet Hayer, a second-time MLA known for his balanced campaign approach, particularly in Barnala district, should not be underestimated.

Not only will the victor matter, but also the vote share, which will send a strong signal about the relevance of the BJP in this part of the state. The spirited campaign of BJP candidate Arvind Khanna, who has previously served as an MLA from this district on both Congress and SAD tickets, adds another layer of complexity to the race.

Summing Up

Regardless of the outcome, the assembly-wise and booth-wise data will provide valuable insights into the mindset of voters. This could lead to mergers of existing parties, the withering away of some, or potentially the birth of new parties or alliances. As the political landscape in Punjab evolves, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections will be a crucial indicator of the future direction of its political forces.

Let's wait and see how the electorate's choices shape the political dynamics in the state.