Punjab is Stagnating—Is It Heading Towards Extinction As Well?

Punjab’s survival as a vibrant, thriving state depends on immediate and unified action from all stakeholders—government agencies, religious institutions, the NRI community, and the people of Punjab.

Is Punjab Heading Towards Extinction?

Once the crown jewel of North India, Punjab today stands at the crossroads of a profound existential crisis. A land that once reverberated with the power and prestige of the Sikh Empire under Maharaja Ranjit Singh, it is now grappling with a convergence of socio-political, economic, and cultural challenges that threaten to erode its identity. The very essence of Punjab—its rich history, vibrant language, and agricultural prowess—seems to be slowly disintegrating. Is this the inevitable decline of a state that once led the nation in prosperity, or is there still a chance to salvage its future? This article explores the historical trajectory, the present crises, and the looming uncertainties that challenge Punjab’s survival, urging a deeper reflection on whether the region is indeed on a path towards extinction.

1. The Fall of the Sikh Empire

The decline of Punjab can be traced back to the collapse of the Sikh Empire following the death of Maharaja Ranjit Singh in 1839. His demise marked the beginning of political fragmentation and British encroachment. The annexation of Punjab by the British in 1849, coupled with the detachment of Jammu and Kashmir into a separate princely state, stripped Punjab of its sovereign might and territorial integrity. The once unified region was shattered, sowing seeds of discontent that still echo in modern times.

2. The Partition of Punjab: A Wound Unhealed

Perhaps the most catastrophic event in Punjab’s history was the Partition of India in 1947. The division not only carved the land but also ruptured its cultural and social fabric. The western part of Punjab, with its fertile lands like the canal colonies of Lyallpur (now Faisalabad), was left behind in Pakistan, while East Punjab faced mass destruction of life and property. The scars of Partition are still evident today in the region’s demographics and its collective psyche.

3. The Creation of Punjabi Suba: A Double-Edged Sword

The integration of the Patiala and East Punjab States Union (PEPSU) into Punjab in 1956 could be seen as a moment of consolidation. However, the subsequent Punjabi Suba movement, aimed at creating a Punjabi-speaking state, paradoxically weakened Punjab as a political and cultural entity. Instead of fostering unity, it further divided the region along linguistic and communal lines, accelerating the decline of Punjab as a construct of consciousness.

4. Chandigarh: The Lost Capital

The creation of Haryana in 1966, which no significant faction had demanded, marked another blow to Punjab. Not only did the state lose key areas to Himachal Pradesh and Haryana, but it also lost its newly built, modern capital of Chandigarh, which remains a Union Territory till this day. The state was fragmented, its territory reduced, and its identity diluted.

5. The Decline of Punjabi Language

The survival of any culture hinges on the vitality of its language. Yet, in the 1961 Census, at the height of the Punjabi Suba agitation, a significant portion of the Punjabi population disowned Punjabi as their mother tongue. This marked the beginning of the decline of the Punjabi language and the Gurmukhi script, despite their sacred association with Sikhism. Punjabi University Patiala was established to preserve and promote the language, but its impact has been limited. Today, in many schools, Punjabi is relegated to secondary status behind English and Hindi, hastening its decline.

6. The Weakness of Punjabi in Governance

Despite being the official language, Punjabi remains marginalised in the state’s administration. Most official work in the Secretariat, as well as legislation in the Vidhan Sabha, is conducted in English. Even in judicial and administrative matters, English dominates, leaving Punjabi as an ornamental token, rather than a functional language of governance.

7. The Dwindling Sikh Population

Punjab's Sikh identity is under threat, with the sharp decline in Keshdhari (unshorn hair) Sikhs and the disenfranchisement of over 70 lakh Sehajdhari Sikhs in 2016 from the SGPC electoral rolls worsening the situation. The SGPC electoral roll strength has seen a nearly 50% drop, falling from 52 lakh in 2011 to about 27.87 lakh in the current registration process. This decline reflects not just reduced participation in religious traditions but also a broader cultural loss for Punjab. Experts attribute this trend to factors like declining trust in the SGPC, a cumbersome registration process, and mass migration of Sikhs.

8. The Demographic Shifts

Adding to Punjab’s demographic complexity is the growing influx of migrant labour from states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal. Many of these migrants have now settled permanently in key urban centres such as Ludhiana and Jalandhar, reshaping the region’s social fabric. Their presence has also introduced political complexities, as many continue to hold voting rights both in Punjab and their home states, due to the failure of the Election Commission of India to fully link voter rolls with Aadhaar and eliminate duplicate registrations. This dual political influence not only distorts electoral outcomes but also further erodes Punjab’s cultural coherence, as the influx of non-native populations shifts the state's demographic balance.

9. Exodus of Punjabi Youth

The exodus of Punjab’s youth to foreign countries, particularly Canada, is accelerating, with many choosing not to return, leaving behind abandoned homes and fallow fields. As of 2024, over 13.35 lakh Indian students are studying abroad, with Canada as the top destination. In 2023, approximately 1.8 lakh, or around 56-57%, of Indian students in Canada were from Punjab, historically contributing 70-75% of the total Indian students there. However, in 2024, there has been a significant 70-80% decline in Punjabi students applying for Canadian visas, due to stricter immigration policies, higher financial requirements, and restrictions on spouse visas. Despite this, the trend of youth leaving Punjab continues to impact the region's agriculture, with much of the land now managed by migrants as the younger generation seeks better opportunities abroad.

10. The Agrarian Crisis

Punjab’s agricultural prosperity is at a critical juncture. Stuck in the wheat-paddy cycle, the state’s water table is plummeting, with desertification looming as a very real threat. The over-reliance on electric and diesel pumps for irrigation is exacerbating the situation, threatening to render Punjab’s once fertile farmland barren. Only 27% of Punjab’s irrigated land relies on canals, while the majority depends on groundwater, which is depleting rapidly. Massive carrier canals, such as the Rajasthan Feeder Canal and the Sirhind Feeder, divert as much as 8.60 MAF of Ravi and Beas river waters to Rajasthan, leading to waterlogging in Punjab's southern districts while depriving the state of much-needed irrigation.

The agitations by farmers for Minimum Support Price (MSP) reforms are ongoing, but the deeper crisis lies in the water mismanagement and unsustainable cropping practices. Unless farmers take control of their cropping patterns and adopt more water-efficient strategies, the desertification of Punjab’s farmlands could become a reality within the next 15 years. At that point, no central government legislation or subsidies will be able to reverse the damage. Immediate action is crucial not only for the current generation but for the future of Punjab’s agricultural legacy.

11. Economic Decline

Once a frontrunner in per capita income and socio-economic development, Punjab now finds itself in the bottom half among Indian states, struggling to maintain its earlier prosperity. In the early 2000s, Punjab boasted one of the highest per capita incomes in the country, but by 2023, it had slipped to the 16th position, with a per capita income of ₹1.53 lakh, far below states like Maharashtra and Haryana. This economic stagnation is coupled with a dismal literacy rate of 75.8%, below the national average of 77.7%, highlighting the state's lack of progress in education.

Health indicators paint a similarly grim picture. Punjab has a high Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) of 21 per 1,000 live births, compared to Kerala’s 6, and its public healthcare system is underfunded and overburdened, with just 1.3 hospital beds per 1,000 people.

The absence of significant investment in key sectors—such as industry, services, and agro-processing—has left Punjab's economy languishing. Once considered the "Granary of India," the state’s agricultural dominance is no longer sufficient to sustain its economic needs. Its status as a border state, combined with a history of partition, insurgency, and political turmoil, has further hampered its ability to attract investment.

But the decline is not merely economic; it reflects a broader erosion of Punjab’s spirit and ambition. A state that once symbolised resilience and prosperity now faces a crisis of confidence, as young people leave in droves, and there is little innovation or development to spark a revival. Punjab's struggle is no longer just about financial survival—it’s about reclaiming its place in the Indian economic and social fabric.

12. The Burden of Rural and Government Debt: A Major Barrier to Punjab’s Development

Rural and farm indebtedness, coupled with the mounting debt of the Punjab government, has emerged as one of the most significant obstacles to the state’s economic revival and development. The state's farmers are deeply trapped in a cycle of debt, with reports indicating that around 86% of farming households in Punjab are indebted, owing an average debt of ₹2.03 lakh per household. This is primarily due to unsustainable agricultural practices, rising input costs, and the lack of adequate support for diversification beyond the wheat-paddy cycle. The result is widespread farmer distress, with many driven to despair and, tragically, suicide. In the last two decades, over 16,600 farmers and agricultural labourers are reported to have taken their lives due to mounting debt burdens.

On the governmental front, Punjab’s fiscal health is equally alarming. As of 2023, the state’s public debt stands at an overwhelming ₹3.12 lakh crore, which is around 48% of its Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP). This debt burden severely limits the state’s ability to invest in infrastructure, healthcare, education, and industrial development. Interest payments alone consume a significant portion of the state's revenue, further reducing the resources available for public welfare and economic development. The combination of farm distress and government debt has created a vicious cycle that hampers investment, discourages business growth, and perpetuates economic stagnation, making it one of the most pressing issues Punjab must address for a sustainable future.

13. Caste Divisions and Religious Fragmentation

The sharp divisions within the Sikh community, particularly between Jat Sikhs and Dalit Sikhs, have led to an unfortunate fragmentation, with almost every village having multiple gurdwaras catering to different factions. This divide is further compounded by the rise of Deras (religious sects) led by self-styled gurus, which fragment the religious landscape even more. Instead of dedicating resources to preserving the unifying teachings of Sikhism, much of the community's wealth and energy are being siphoned off into administrative overheads or the personal cults of these Deras.

What is most alarming is that the core, unifying message of the Sikh Gurus—that humanity is one family, transcending caste, creed, and religion—is being lost amid the noise of internal divisions and external influences. The surge of Christian conversions in certain pockets of Punjab, coupled with the persistence of caste-based segregation, dilutes the essence of Sikhism's teachings of equality and universal brotherhood. These developments divert focus away from the spiritual path laid down by the Gurus, threatening the cohesion of the Sikh community and undermining the very principles on which it was founded.

14. The Role of NRIs

Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) of Punjabi origin, both Sikh and Hindu, are eager to contribute to Punjab's revival, but their efforts are stifled by bureaucratic red tape, corruption, and challenges in safeguarding their properties. Many NRIs find themselves unable to retain control over their ancestral lands, as co-sharers often exploit loopholes in the land revenue system to make questionable entries in official records.

Additionally, the absence of an institutional framework to engage NRIs in meaningful, structured ways is a significant missed opportunity for Punjab’s regeneration. NRIs who attempt to invest in start-ups or industries face resistance not only from local officials but also from a business environment that lacks the necessary ease of doing business, particularly when navigating from abroad. Despite their willingness to bring resources, expertise, and innovation, NRIs are thwarted by systemic inefficiencies that prevent them from making a lasting impact on Punjab's development. A structured, transparent framework to engage this diaspora could be the key to unlocking much-needed investment and innovation for the state’s future.

15. The Road Ahead: Self-Help or Extinction?

Punjab’s future hangs precariously in the balance, and it is clear that external aid or government intervention alone will not be enough to reverse its decline. The onus lies on its people—on grassroots movements, local communities, and self-help organisations—to spearhead a revival of the state’s land, culture, and economy. The urgent need is for collective action, driven by an awareness that Punjab’s identity is far more than just a geographic entity; it is a state of mind, where Punjab, Punjabi, and Punjabiat are deeply intertwined. The teachings of the Sikh Gurus, which advocate unity, equality, and the oneness of humanity, are not just spiritual directives but foundational principles that must guide this revival.

Room for Cautious Optimism?

However, the trajectory Punjab is on—characterised by agrarian distress, demographic shifts, and cultural fragmentation—suggests that the decline is not only rapid but could become irreversible if left unchecked. The 15 parameters examined earlier highlight the convergence of crises that Punjab faces today, each one compounding the other and pushing the state into a quagmire from which recovery will not be easy. I wish I could conclude on a note of optimism, but it would be disingenuous to ignore the gravity of the situation. What is needed now are constructive, pragmatic, and actionable solutions, not mere rhetoric or political posturing. Writing letters to national leaders or delivering provocative speeches will not be enough; the time has come for the people of Punjab to take matters into their own hands and lead the charge for change.

Conclusion: A Call for Action, Not Complacency

The warnings are clear, and the signs of decay are visible in every sphere—agriculture, demography, language, and culture. The time for complacency has passed. Punjab’s survival as a vibrant, thriving state depends on immediate and unified action from all stakeholders—government agencies, religious institutions, the NRI community, and, above all, the people of Punjab. Without this collective will to reverse the trends, Punjab may find itself on the path to cultural and economic extinction, a self-fulfilling prophecy that could jeopardise not only the future of the state but the strength and security of India itself. A strong Punjab is essential for a strong India, given its strategic location, rich history, and cultural importance. The time to act is now—before it is too late.