Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Flees Bangladesh: A Dramatic Turn of Events

Volatile Situation in India’s Immediate Neighbourhood: India Needs to Tread with Caution While Eschewing Paranoia

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Flees Bangladesh

The breaking news from Bangladesh has sent shockwaves across the region as Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled the country amidst a virtual coup, with the military taking over the administration. On Monday, August 5, 2024, Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman announced in a televised address that Hasina had left Bangladesh and that he would be forming a temporary administration, under the guidance of the President. This dramatic turn of events follows weeks of intense student-led demonstrations against a controversial job quota system and broader calls for political reform. The protests, which began in response to the reinstatement of a quota system reserving government jobs for certain groups, quickly evolved into a wider movement demanding Hasina's resignation.

Rising Unrest and Military Intervention

The unrest reached a critical point on Sunday when at least 94 people were killed in violent clashes, bringing the total death toll since early July to over 300. Despite a Supreme Court ruling on July 21 that scaled back the quota system, the demonstrations persisted. With escalating violence and political turmoil, General Waker-uz-Zaman stepped in, stating his intent to seek guidance from the President in charting a path forward for the nation.

Timeline of Key Events Leading to Sheikh Hasina's Departure

2024:

• January 7: Sheikh Hasina wins her fifth term as Prime Minister in a controversial election marked by low turnout and opposition boycott.

• June 9: Hasina visits India for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's swearing-in ceremony.

• Late June/Early July: Hasina makes another official bilateral visit to India.

• July 8-10: State visit to China, which reportedly disappoints Dhaka due to limited financial support and protocol issues.

• Early July: Student protests begin over Bangladesh's job quota system, signaling deeper political and economic problems.

• July 19: At least 67 people are killed in protests against the quota system, marking the highest single-day casualty count in recent Bangladesh history.

• July 20: Hasina cancels her planned overseas trips to Spain and Brazil due to the escalating situation.

• July 21: Bangladesh's Supreme Court scales back the controversial job quota system:

  • Reduces quota for families of independence fighters from 30% to 5%

  • Directs that 93% of government jobs should be open to candidates on merit

  • Retains 2% quota for people from backward groups and the disabled

• Late July/Early August: Protests continue despite the Supreme Court ruling, with students demanding the release of jailed protesters and the resignation of officials responsible for the violence.

• August 4: Violent clashes result in at least 91 deaths, including 14 police officers, marking another day of high casualties.

• August 5:

  • Students call for a march to the capital Dhaka, defying a nationwide curfew.

  • A nationwide curfew is imposed, train services are halted, and the garment industry is shut down.

  • High-speed internet services are suspended, and social media platforms become inaccessible.

  • Sheikh Hasina reportedly resigns as Prime Minister and flees the country.

This timeline incorporates Hasina's recent international trips and the subsequent cancellation of planned visits due to the escalating situation in Bangladesh, leading up to her reported resignation and departure from the country.

Other Events and Regime Changes in India's Neighbourhood

This development Bangladesh is the latest in a series of tumultuous events that have plagued South Asia in recent years, signalling a pattern of instability and regime changes.

2021: Myanmar Coup

The military seized power in Myanmar in 2021, overthrowing the democratically elected government. This abrupt transition plunged the country into chaos, with widespread protests and violent crackdowns. The coup has led to significant international condemnation and ongoing civil unrest, severely disrupting Myanmar's political and social stability.

2022: Sri Lanka Riots and Regime Change

Sri Lanka faced severe economic turmoil in 2022, which triggered massive protests across the country. The unrest, fueled by shortages of essential goods and skyrocketing inflation, ultimately led to the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. This change of regime marked a significant turning point for Sri Lanka, highlighting the deep-seated economic issues and the demand for political reform.

2022-23: Pakistan Riots and Imran Khan's Imprisonment

Pakistan experienced a period of intense political instability from 2022 to 2023, marked by widespread riots and protests. The situation escalated with the imprisonment of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, adding to the nation's turmoil. The political unrest reflected the deep divisions within the country and raised concerns about Pakistan's future stability.

2024: Nepal's Political Instability

Nepal, amidst these upheavals in neighbouring countries, has managed to maintain a relatively stable political environment. However, it has not been immune to internal pressures and external influences. The political landscape in Nepal is characterised by frequent changes in government and coalition politics, often resulting in instability and delays in policy implementation. The country must navigate these challenges while maintaining a delicate balance between its relations with India and China.

A Cautionary Note for India

In light of these developments, India must be extremely vigilant about its internal security. Any internal divisions, whether along political, religious, or social lines, could be exploited by external forces seeking to destabilise the country. The opposition should also be responsible and not play into the hands of powers inimical towards India, especially in a scenario of unemployment, inflation, and potentially divisive interpretations of the Supreme Court’s judgment on the sub-classification of Scheduled Castes. The Government, while introducing the bill to amend the Waqf law, must be careful to stem the narrative that it’s an anti-Muslim measure.

Imminent Influx of Refugees

In light of events in Bangladesh, the country can expect an influx of refugees. Although the CAA allows an assured path to citizenship only to the persecuted minorities from neighbouring countries, it should deal with refugees and asylum seekers purely on humanitarian considerations and in accordance with the UN Charter rather than religion. The Central Government and state government in West Bengal should not act in discord.

Issue of Reservation

Similarly, the issue of reservation in jobs, especially the consideration of the “creamy layer” within the SC/STs and OBCs, should be dealt with sensitivity. However, general category candidates must not be squeezed out by giving a reservation of more than 50%. The stability of the Indian republic shows the resilience of Indian democracy and institutions, but the risk should not be underestimated. Global entities with vested interests in destabilising the region will not cease their efforts to destabilise India, especially our northern neighbour. It is imperative for India to remain united, reinforce its democratic processes, and address any internal grievances with urgency and fairness.

J&K and India’s Other Regional Issues

Tackling terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir with a firm hand is essential while ensuring a pathway to free and fair elections for the legislative assembly in the Union Territory, alongside a clear roadmap and timelines for the return to full statehood. Similarly, the genuine demands and concerns of the Union Territory of Ladakh should be addressed, given its strategic location with reference to China. Additionally, the peace process in Manipur needs to be actively pursued, and a comprehensive strategy should be implemented to tackle the Naxalite-infested belts in Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Odisha, ensuring stability and development in these regions.

Summing Up

The volatility in India's immediate neighbourhood, as seen in the recent military takeover in Bangladesh, the ongoing turmoil in Myanmar, the economic crisis in Sri Lanka, and the political instability in Pakistan, underscores the urgent need for robust internal security measures and national unity. These developments highlight a regional pattern of instability and regime changes that pose potential risks to India's own stability. Maintaining a stable and democratic India is crucial not only for the nation's future but also for the stability and prosperity of the entire South Asian region.

In addition, the border issues with China remain a significant concern. While it is imperative to safeguard India's territorial integrity, it is equally important to deescalate tensions with China, considering it is a major trade partner. By addressing internal divisions, maintaining vigilance against external threats, and fostering diplomatic relations, India can prevent the spillover effects of regional unrest. Strengthening diplomatic relations and providing support to neighbouring countries in crisis can also help foster regional stability. As a significant power in South Asia, India has the responsibility and the capability to act as a pillar of stability, ensuring that democratic principles and economic growth remain steadfast amidst the surrounding turbulence.