Pakistan’s Chameleon Nuclear Nibbling — And, the West Looked the Other Way
From Bhutto’s Multan vow to Gen Munir’s Mar-a-Lago grin, Pakistan’s nuclear nibbling has been fed by Western indulgence & selective ignorance — now a swelling arsenal risks an unannounced flashpoint.
Karan Bir Singh Sidhu is a retired IAS officer and former Special Chief Secretary, Punjab. He holds an MA in Economics from the University of Manchester and writes on geostrategy, international affairs, and the shifting jigsaw puzzle of the global chessboard — from a uniquely Indian perspective.
1 | Introduction: A Friend at Lunch, a Bomb in the Basement
When President Donald Trump quietly lunched with Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Syed Asim Munir, at Mar-a-Lago in mid-June 2025, it looked less like protocol and more like a back-channel bargain: keep Kashmir quiet and, if the Iran crisis widens, open Pakistani airspace for U.S. logistics. Islamabad basked in the spotlight—then proposed President Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize the very next day. reuters.com But behind the flattery lies a half-century story of stealthy nuclear nibbling that the West preferred not to see.
2 | 1971: Humiliation Lights the Fuse
Pakistan’s dismemberment in the 1971 war, and the birth of Bangladesh, convinced Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto that only an atomic deterrent could prevent another national “dismemberment.” On 24 January 1972 at Multan he ordered the bomb project, declaring, “We will eat grass, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own.” nuclearweaponarchive.orggoodreads.com
3 | Project-706: The Secret Nursery
Bhutto’s directive spawned Project-706, a clandestine enterprise run first by the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission and, from 1976, by a new star: Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan. Khan walked out of Europe’s URENCO labs with centrifuge blueprints and a Rolodex of suppliers, seeding the gas-centrifuge complex at Kahuta that produced weapon-grade uranium by 1982. rusi.org
4 | The Afghan Cover-Up
During the 1980s Soviet-Afghan war, Washington armed the mujahideen and waived sanctions while Islamabad’s enrichment cascades spun uninspected. Pakistan nibbled its way to the bomb behind the smoke of Stinger-missile crates, confident the CIA would keep looking north to Kabul.
5 | 1998: Five Flashes in the Baloch Hills
India’s Pokhran-II tests in May 1998 gave Islamabad the perfect pretext. On 28 May Pakistan fired five underground devices at Chagai-I, followed by a sixth at Chagai-II two days later, announcing itself as the world’s seventh nuclear power and triggering global sanctions. en.wikipedia.orgnuclearweaponarchive.org
6 | The AQ Khan Bazaar Goes Global
Even as sanctions bit, Khan’s “nuclear bazaar” sold enrichment kits and warhead designs to Iran, North Korea and Libya. The network unravelled only in 2003, when the German ship BBC China was seized en route to Libya with 1,000 centrifuge parts; AQ Khan’s televised “apology” followed in 2004, yet he died a national hero in 2021. rusi.orgcarnegieendowment.org
7 | 2025 Arsenal: From Minimum to Full-Spectrum
Today Islamabad fields about 170 warheads, MIRV-capable missiles, a budding sea-based leg and battlefield “Nasr” nukes advertised for use against Indian armour—proof that the nuclear diet has moved from “credible minimum” to “full-spectrum” deterrence. globalmilitary.net
8 | Taliban Blowback in a Nuclear State
While its arsenal grows, Pakistan bleeds at home. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan claimed 110 attacks in January-April 2025 alone, killing soldiers and police from Khyber to Karachi. dnd.com.pk The militants Islamabad once mid-wifed have become a Frankenstein stalking its garrisons—raising nightmare questions about command-and-control should chaos deepen.
9 | Afghan Refugees: Human Collateral of Strategic Depth
More than a million Afghans now face forced return under Islamabad’s expulsion drive, a policy the UN warns could deliver refugees to persecution and poverty under Taliban rule. hrw.org The same “strategic depth” doctrine that nurtured the Taliban is today uprooting families—and straining Pakistan’s already brittle internal security.
10 | Mar-a-Lago and the Next Colour Shift
President Trump’s courtship of General Munir echoes Bill Clinton’s quiet line to General Musharraf during the 1999 Kargil crisis: a tactical handshake that ignores the strategic chameleon. Islamabad may soon offer “logistics” for any subsequent U.S. strike wave over Iran—just enough cooperation to reset Western indulgence while its centrifuges keep humming.
11 | Western Freinds: Open Your Eyes
From Bhutto’s Multan vow to Munir’s Mar-a-Lago grin, Pakistan’s nuclear nibbling has thrived on Western “willing suspension of disbelief”. Fifty-three years of incremental enrichment, covert testing and global smuggling have produced both a swelling arsenal and a worsening militant blowback. Unless the West finally rips off the blindfold, the next flash in the desert may not wait for another “nudge” from Islamabad—it may come unannounced, amid the chaos Pakistan itself has nurtured.
TL;DR
Pakistan's Nuclear Standing: NSG 🇵🇰 Pakistan’s Nuclear Standing: NSG Membership, Power Plants, and Comparison with 🇮🇳 India
📜 Nuclear Suppliers Group Membership Status
Pakistan is not a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). The country has been actively lobbying for NSG membership since 2016, when it formally submitted its application alongside India. However, Pakistan’s bid has faced significant obstacles, primarily due to its refusal to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its controversial proliferation history.
The NSG — currently comprising 48 participating governments — was ironically formed in response to India’s 1974 nuclear test and has maintained strict export controls on nuclear technology. Pakistan has consistently argued for a “non-discriminatory, criteria-based approach” to NSG membership, emphasizing that both Indian and Pakistani applications should be considered simultaneously to maintain strategic stability in South Asia.
Since 2018, the NSG has not made any membership decisions regarding pending applications from India, Pakistan, Jordan, and Namibia. The group’s ambiguous 2001 NPT benchmark remains a significant sticking point for consideration of both Indian and Pakistani membership applications.
⚛️ Pakistan’s Nuclear Power Infrastructure
🔌 Current Operational Capacity
Pakistan operates six commercial nuclear power plants with a combined net capacity of ~3,545 MW. These facilities contribute roughly 18.65% of the nation’s total electricity generation, producing 24.054 terawatt-hours in FY2023. The plants are located at two primary sites: Chashma and Karachi.
🏭 Operational Nuclear Plants
Chashma Nuclear Power Plant Complex:
C-1 (325 MW)
C-2 (325 MW)
C-3 (340 MW)
C-4 (340 MW)
Karachi Nuclear Power Plants:
K-2 (1,100 MW)
K-3 (1,100 MW)
🏗️ Under Construction & Future Plans
Pakistan has one plant under construction:
Chashma Unit 5 (C-5) — 1,200 MW — largest to date.
Uses China’s Hualong One 3rd-gen tech, costing $3.7 billion.
Nuclear Energy Vision 2050:
Target → 40,000 MW capacity
Plan → 32 reactors covering 25% national power demand
Interim → 8,000 MW by 2030
🕰️ Historical Context
Pakistan’s first nuclear plant: KANUPP-1, commissioned in 1972, shut in 2021 after 50 years.
First Muslim nation to build & operate nuclear plants.
🇵🇰 vs 🇮🇳 Nuclear Standing: A Comparison
💣 Nuclear Arsenal
India: ~180 warheads
Pakistan: ~170 warheads
For the first time in 20 years, India holds a numerical edge.
🌍 International Recognition & Standing
India’s Advantages:
2008 NSG waiver unlocked access to civil nuclear tech.
Indo-US Civil Nuclear Agreement recognised India’s “impeccable non-proliferation credentials”.
Can export PHWRs (220 MWe / 540 MWe).
Pioneered 3-stage thorium cycle.
Pakistan’s Challenges:
Stigma of A.Q. Khan proliferation network.
Sanctions & blocked from international nuclear commerce.
Isolated due to non-NPT status & history.
⚙️ Technological Dependencies
India:
Indigenous base after 2008 waiver.
Nuclear deals with US, France, Russia, others.
Pakistan:
Dependent on China.
China built two bases → 6 reactors → ~30 bn kWh annually.
🔋 Domestic Energy Contribution
India:
Nuclear = ~2% (48.2 TWh of 1,958 TWh in 2023).
Target: 100 GW by 2047.
Pakistan:
Nuclear = ~18.65% — higher % than India — but only 3,545 MW in absolute capacity.
🛡️ Strategic Implications
India:
Minimum deterrent, second-strike capable — nuclear subs, advanced missiles.
Pakistan:
Relies on tactical nukes & first-use threats — seen as destabilising.
Global view: India → responsible nuclear power.
Pakistan → under scrutiny, blocked from global partnerships.