Indus Waters Treaty Suspension — A Boon for Punjab and J&K

Strategic Utilisation of Western Rivers and Inter-Basin Diversion Post-Indus Waters Treaty Suspension

Shahpur Kandi Dam Project on Ravi, downstream Ranjit Sagar Dam: 4th February, 2023 pics.

India Suspends Indus Waters Treaty Indefinitely

Executive Summary

India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) on 23 April 2025 marks a decisive policy shift with far-reaching implications for water security in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) and Punjab. Coming in the immediate aftermath of the Pahalgam massacre on 22 April, which claimed the lives of 26 civilians in a terror attack linked to cross-border networks, the decision signals not just a diplomatic rebuttal but a strategic recalibration of national resource control. Though symbolic in the short term, the move dismantles long-standing legal constraints that had limited India’s capacity to develop multi-purpose infrastructure on the western rivers—Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum. Freed from the treaty’s procedural bottlenecks, the country now has the legislative and strategic bandwidth to realign water flows for domestic benefit.

From Restraint to Resolve: The End of a Treaty that Withstood War and Terror

This shift has paved the way for India to reorient western river waters toward eastern river basins, particularly the Ravi-Beas system, which sustains agricultural lifelines across Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan. Notably, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), brokered in 1960, had remarkably survived the Indo-Pak wars of 1965 and 1971, the Kargil conflict of 1999, as well as devastating acts of terrorism such as the 26/11 Mumbai attacks and the Pulwama bombing of 2019. Throughout these crises, India upheld the treaty in the spirit of regional peace and cooperative water-sharing.

However, following the Pahalgam massacre of 22 April 2025, the threshold of tolerance was breached. India’s patience—guided yet firm under the dynamic leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi—finally wore thin, leading to the treaty’s indefinite suspension. This bold departure from precedent is not merely symbolic; it signals the emergence of a resolute, sovereign India ready to leverage its natural resources for domestic resilience and regional equity.

Current Infrastructure on Western Rivers

Indus River: Limited Storage, High Potential

The Indus river basin in Ladakh, long underutilised due to IWT stipulations, hosts operational run-of-the-river projects like Nimoo-Bazgo and Dumkhar. More transformative, however, is the now-liberated Bursar Dam, poised to serve both hydroelectric and irrigation purposes, particularly across the Suru and Dras valleys.

Chenab River: Hydroelectric Dominance

The Chenab has been central to hydroelectric production, with projects such as Baglihar and Dul Hasti. The Sawalkot Dam, with 1.8 million acre-feet (MAF) of proposed storage, stands as a pivotal post-treaty project. Once completed, it could irrigate tens of thousands of hectares and contribute significantly to downstream diversions.

Jhelum River: Flood Management Focus

The Jhelum’s narrow valleys have previously restricted its irrigation utility, but projects like Kishanganga and the Uri cascade now offer avenues for localised water retention and agriculture-oriented retrofitting.

Turning Symbolism into Strategy

Though the suspension of the IWT is viewed by some as largely symbolic, legal experts argue otherwise. Senior Advocate Mohan Katarki, who previously represented Punjab in inter-state water disputes before the Supreme Court, underscored the strategic opportunity: “These projects, once executed, promise up to four million acre-feet of additional diversions into the Ravi-Beas system—transforming the landscape of water management and agricultural productivity in north-western India,” he stated, speaking exclusively to The KBS Chronicle. “It is not merely a diplomatic posture; it is a hydraulic realignment that, if executed properly, could resolve inter-state inequities and rejuvenate canal-fed farming.”

Dr Katarki added that the Marhu Tunnel, a long-shelved engineering proposal, and the construction of dams like Bursar and Sawalkot, could together account for the bulk of this diversion potential.

Strategic Advice from Within: Leverage the Abeyance Window

A former Union Secretary for Water Resources, a senior retired IAS officer with extensive domain expertise, has offered a timely and strategic perspective on how India should navigate (pun unintended) the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. He underscores that this period of treaty abeyance offers an unprecedented opportunity to address long-pending priorities—most notably, the desilting of the Salal Dam, a critical hydroelectric project located on the Chenab River in Reasi district, Jammu & Kashmir. This operation, he notes, is vital not only for restoring generation efficiency but also for establishing India’s renewed control over river infrastructure previously restricted by the treaty.

He further recommends the expedited completion of all pending hydroelectric projects that had been delayed due to treaty-related limitations. With its proven institutional capacity and technical expertise, the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC) is, in his view, well-placed to spearhead this accelerated implementation across the western river basins.

Further, he advocates for a fundamental shift in India’s project planning philosophy: rather than limiting itself to run-of-the-river schemes, India should now consider launching new multipurpose infrastructure directly on the main stem of the Indus River. According to him, this would serve dual objectives—strengthening India’s developmental agenda and delivering a firm psychological message to Pakistan that underscores India’s sovereign intent and capacity to act decisively in the current geopolitical climate.

Immediate Irrigation Opportunities in J&K

Unlocking Treaty-Restricted Storage

India previously utilised only a small fraction of its permitted storage under the IWT—just 5.6% of the 3.6 MAF allowance. With the treaty now suspended, projects such as Bursar Dam can be accelerated to deliver irrigation to 45,000 hectares through gravity-fed systems. Similarly, lift irrigation using solar power from the Chenab to South Kashmir’s orchards could transform 18,000 hectares into high-value crop zones.

Jhelum Floodplain Agriculture

A ₹5,411 crore flood management initiative under the Phase-II Jhelum Plan aims to irrigate up to 30,000 hectares through controlled diversion and floodplain agriculture, expanding micro-irrigation for crops like saffron and rice.

Inter-Basin Diversion to Ravi-Beas System

Chenab-to-Ravi Transfer

The Marhu Tunnel proposal, dating back to IWT-era negotiations, has re-entered feasibility discussions. By channelling 2.5 MAF per year from Chenab to Ravi via a 42 km underground conduit, it aligns with Dr Katarki’s strategic forecast. Its implementation could be the single largest diversion project of the post-IWT era.

Jhelum-to-Beas Lift Scheme

A proposed lift scheme at Baramulla aims to transfer 1.2 MAF annually from Jhelum to the Pong Reservoir on the Beas, bolstering irrigation in central and south Punjab.

Ujh Multipurpose Project

Currently under construction, the Ujh Project on a Ravi tributary will deliver irrigation to 28,000 hectares in Kathua and Samba districts by 2027, further integrating western river resources into the eastern grid.

Punjab’s Groundwater Crisis and Canal Revival

Depletion Metrics

Punjab’s extraction rate of 34 BCM per year against a recharge of 22 BCM has led to a 0.49 m annual decline in groundwater levels. Despite a 14,000 km canal network, only 21% of the state’s irrigation comes from surface water.

Impact of Western River Diversions

Projects like Shahpurkandi (to be operational by June 2025) and the proposed Marhu Tunnel will collectively add 3.8 to 4 MAF to the Ravi-Beas system. This will enable:

• Expansion of canal irrigation in Punjab from 780,000 to 1.1 million hectares

• Fulfilment of 80% of Rajasthan’s Ravi-Beas water entitlement

• Improved water-sharing equity with Haryana

Policy Interventions

Punjab has earmarked ₹2,800 crore for canal lining and smart water metering, while a draft Subsoil Water Preservation Act proposes mandatory canal usage quotas for tubewell farmers—an essential step in curbing groundwater overdependence.

Risks and Recommendations

Geopolitical and Ecological Considerations

Pakistan remains heavily reliant on the western rivers, and any significant diversion could affect over 12 million acres of its cropland, particularly in West Punjab and Sindh provinces. Furthermore, reduced sediment flow resulting from large-scale damming and storage infrastructure on the Chenab and Jhelum could impact the long-term fertility of Pakistan Punjab’s alluvial plains, necessitating artificial replenishment or compensatory agricultural practices.

That said, in the context of decades of cross-border hostility, this is perhaps the only language that Pakistan’s military establishment—responsible for orchestrating and sustaining terror networks within India—appears to understand. The suspension of the treaty, coupled with infrastructure-led deterrence, represents a calibrated and sovereign response to persistent proxy aggression.

Strategic Recommendations

1. Fast-Track Key Projects
   Prioritise the construction and commissioning of Bursar and Sawalkot dams, with the goal of achieving a cumulative storage and diversion capacity of 4 MAF by 2030.

2. Reconstitute Water Tribunal with Limited Mandate
   The Ravi-Beas Water Tribunal should be reconvened to adjudicate only the allocation of existing Ravi-Beas waters among Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan.

   However, any additional waters diverted from the western rivers—such as from the Chenab or Jhelum—must remain outside the tribunal’s jurisdiction. These newly harnessed flows must be treated as exclusive entitlements of the two directly affected riparian states, Punjab and Jammu & Kashmir, in recognition of their role in facilitating and financing the necessary infrastructure.

3. Invest in Aquifer Recharge
   At least 15% of the diverted water should be channelled into Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) systems in southern and south-western Punjab. These will serve to reverse groundwater depletion, stabilise the water table, and increase resilience against drought conditions.

Summing Up and Looking Forward

While the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty may appear symbolic to sceptics, India’s proactive and ambitious infrastructure roadmap reveals a far deeper strategic intent. As Senior Advocate Mohan Katarki asserts, the potential to divert up to 4 million acre-feet (MAF) into the Ravi-Beas system by 2030 represents not just a tactical recalibration, but a civilisational course correction—reclaiming sovereign control over waters long flowing unutilised to Pakistan.

With the treaty’s legal shackles now dismantled, a new generation of multipurpose projects—Sawalkot, Bursar, the Marhu Tunnel, Baramulla Lift Scheme, the Jhelum Floodplain Management Programme, and the full realisation of the Ujh Multipurpose Project—can be conceived, executed, and delivered without the procedural fetters of international arbitration or Pakistani objections. These projects hold the promise not only of irrigating over 200,000 hectares in J&K and Punjab, but also of adding over 3,000 MW of clean hydropower capacity to the national grid.

Treat these as National Projects

Each of these initiatives must be accorded the status of National Projects, with 100% Central Government funding, covering both the irrigation and hydroelectric components. Such recognition is not merely a financial imperative but a political affirmation of national unity, security, and equitable development.

The opportunity now exists to replace ambiguity with engineering, dependency with sovereignty, and depletion with sustainability—ushering in a new era of water security and agricultural renaissance for Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, and the Indian nation as a whole.