Gujarat's March Under Narendra Modi (2001-2024): The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
From State-Level Innovation to National Implementation
Gujarat's March Under Modi (2001-2024)
From State-Level Innovation to National Implementation
On this day, 23 years ago, Prime Minister Narendra Modi first took the oath of office as the Chief Minister of Gujarat. What is extraordinary is that, even while operating at a state or sub-state level, Modi conceived and successfully implemented numerous programmes that would later have a transformative impact at the national level. His leadership in Gujarat was a precursor to several initiatives that were replicated across India post-2014, but with significantly expanded reach and impact.
A case in point is the sanitation programme, which began as the "Nirmal Gujarat" initiative. Focused on improving sanitation within the state, it laid the groundwork for the nationwide "Swachh Bharat Mission" launched in 2014. Similarly, Gujarat’s efforts in water conservation through the "Jal Mandir" initiative influenced the national "Mission Amrit Sarovar" aimed at restoring water bodies across India. These are just two examples from a list of 23 key programmes that started in Gujarat and later scaled up to benefit the entire nation.
Transformative Initiatives in Infrastructure, Energy, and Governance
Gujarat’s development under Modi also saw advancements in infrastructure, which were later adopted nationally. The "Bhaskaracharya Institute for Space Applications and Geoinformatics" (BISAG) in Gujarat used geospatial technology for infrastructure planning, disaster preparedness, and resource management. This model evolved into the "Gati Shakti National Master Plan," launched at the national level to coordinate infrastructure development across ministries. Similarly, Gujarat's pioneering work in solar energy and climate action served as the basis for the national push towards renewable energy and environmental conservation, as seen in the PM Surya Ghar Bijli Yojana and India’s ambitious climate targets.
Moreover, Modi’s emphasis on e-governance in Gujarat, exemplified by the e-Gram Vishwagram Project, which connected villages via broadband for efficient governance, became a blueprint for the "Digital India" initiative. The e-governance approach, initially aimed at rural areas in Gujarat, has now evolved into a comprehensive digital transformation across the country, enabling transparency, efficiency, and improved service delivery.
These examples underscore the pivotal role Gujarat played as a testing ground for innovative programmes that, when scaled nationally, had a profound impact on India's socio-economic landscape.
Law and Order in Gujarat: A Shift from Chaos to Control
The law and order situation in Gujarat has undergone a significant transformation since 2001, with notable improvements in gang-related activities, communal tensions, and heinous crimes. In the pre-2001 era, Gujarat, especially Porbandar, was infamous for rampant gang wars and mafia rule, earning it the moniker "Chicago of Gujarat." The nexus between politicians and mafia dons, such as Santokben Jadeja, was a strong and pervasive force. However, by the mid-1990s and especially after 2001, there has been a visible decline in gangster activities. The once-dominant mafia presence has largely diminished, and gang wars have become a thing of the past, contributing to an overall improvement in the state's law and order situation.
Communal Tensions and Crime Trends: Progress with Caveats
Communal tensions in Gujarat peaked during the 2002 Gujarat riots, but the situation has since improved, with a significant reduction in the frequency and intensity of such conflicts. National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) data shows a 12% drop in murders attributed to communal causes between 2014-2021 compared to 2006-2013. Despite this progress, sporadic incidents of communal violence continue to emerge, particularly in neighbouring states, highlighting the ongoing challenge of maintaining communal harmony.
In terms of heinous crimes, Gujarat’s government claims a reduction in several categories, citing NCRB data to show that the state's crime rates are below the national average. For example, the crime rate against women in Gujarat stands at 22.1, significantly lower than the national average of 64.5. However, discrepancies in crime reporting, particularly concerning crimes against women, have raised concerns about the accuracy of these figures. Differences between state and central government data continue to spark debates on the reliability of crime statistics.
Overall, while Gujarat has made significant strides in controlling gangster activities and improving communal harmony, challenges remain in ensuring accurate crime reporting, especially in cases involving women. The state's progress reflects a marked shift from the lawlessness of the past, but further efforts are needed to address persistent issues and ensure long-term safety and justice.
A Critical Analysis of Gujarat’s Performance
Much has been written on this occasion by eminent authors, economists, and political figures, highlighting the transformative programmes that Narendra Modi launched during his tenure as Chief Minister. These initiatives are often credited with turning Gujarat from a relatively lagging state into one of the most progressive within the Indian Union. While it is important to acknowledge these achievements, this analysis aims to take a critical look at Gujarat's socio-economic performance from 2001 to the present. By examining various well-accepted development indicators—such as economic growth, infrastructure development, literacy rates, healthcare, and income distribution—this evaluation will provide a clearer picture of Gujarat's progress relative to national averages. The goal is to understand not just the successes but also the challenges and areas where improvements are still needed. Through this lens, we can assess how Gujarat’s standing on these key parameters has evolved over time and how it compares to the rest of India.
The Good
1. Economic Growth
Gujarat's economic trajectory has been nothing short of remarkable since 2001. The state's GDP surged from ₹750,000 crore in 2001 to an estimated ₹27.9 lakh crore (US$334 billion) by 2024. This represents a 3,700% increase in nominal terms, marking one of the highest growth rates among Indian states. Per capita income, a crucial indicator of individual prosperity, rose from ₹30,000 in 2001 to an estimated ₹389,332 (US$4,665) in 2024. This phenomenal growth has positioned Gujarat as a key economic driver for India.
2. Industrialisation
Under Modi’s leadership, Gujarat transformed into India's most industrialised state, boasting the highest industrial output in the country. The industrialisation rate surged from 20% in 2001 to 70% in 2024. The state is now a leader in various sectors including chemicals, petrochemicals, dairy, pharmaceuticals, cement, ceramics, gems and jewellery, textiles, and engineering. This robust industrial base has attracted both domestic and foreign investments, fuelling the state's economic engine.
3. Agricultural Production
Gujarat’s agricultural sector has also witnessed significant growth. Agricultural production more than doubled, increasing from ₹200,000 crore in 2001 to ₹450,000 crore in 2024. This was supported by a substantial expansion in irrigated land, from 1.2 million hectares in 2001 to 2.5 million hectares by 2024. Improved water management techniques and the promotion of innovative farming practices have contributed to the state's agricultural success.
4. Literacy Rates
Gujarat has seen marked improvements in literacy rates. Male literacy increased from 75% in 2001 to an impressive 99% in 2024. Female literacy, too, has shown a dramatic rise from 50% to 95% over the same period. These gains are reflective of the state's focus on educational reforms and inclusive development, particularly for women.
5. Revenue Generation
The state's revenue receipts have grown exponentially, from ₹20,000 crore in 2001 to ₹800,000 crore in 2024. This substantial increase has strengthened the state's fiscal capacity, enabling greater investment in infrastructure and social development projects.
The Bad
1. Environmental Concerns
Despite its impressive economic growth, Gujarat faces pressing environmental challenges. The current Air Quality Index (AQI) in Gujarat stands at 78, classified as moderate. However, cities like Ahmedabad continue to struggle with air pollution, with PM2.5 levels frequently surpassing WHO guidelines. The rapid pace of industrialisation has exerted pressure on the state's natural resources, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of its growth model.
2. Income Inequality
While overall economic indicators are positive, income inequality remains a critical concern. As of 2019-20, 15% of Gujarat’s population still lived below the poverty line, highlighting the uneven distribution of wealth and opportunities. Bridging this gap is crucial to ensuring that economic growth translates into widespread prosperity across all sections of society.
The Ugly
1. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
Although Gujarat's Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) has decreased from 60 per 1,000 live births in 2001 to 25 in 2024, it is still higher than desired for a state with such advanced economic indicators. Improved healthcare infrastructure and better maternal and child health services are necessary to further reduce this figure.
2. Unemployment
Gujarat recorded the lowest unemployment rate in India at 4.4% in 2022. However, there remains significant scope for improvement in job creation, particularly in the formal sector. Despite a strong industrial base, a large portion of the workforce is employed in the informal sector, which often lacks job security and benefits. Enhancing employment opportunities in the formal economy is essential for sustainable growth.
Summing Up and Looking Forward
While Gujarat's performance and the so-called "Gujarat Model" of development have been largely commendable, it is important to recognise that applying this model uniformly across a country as vast and diverse as India would be unrealistic. India is a nation that functions more like a sub-continent, with each region possessing its unique socio-economic, cultural, and environmental characteristics. Therefore, while the successes of Gujarat offer valuable lessons, the model must be adapted and customised to local conditions. By sifting out the effective features—such as industrialisation, infrastructure development, and efficient governance—and tweaking them to suit the distinct needs and strengths of each state, the nation can achieve balanced growth. This approach would ensure that every region develops in line with its unique resources and advantages, fostering a more equitable and holistic form of progress.
However, challenges remain for Gujarat, especially in addressing environmental sustainability, income inequality, and critical health metrics like the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR). While the state’s economic achievements are indeed commendable, it is crucial to ensure that future growth is inclusive, equitable, and sustainable, with a focus on reducing disparities.
Ending with our Felicitations
As Gujarat continues its developmental journey, the key challenge will be striking a balance between its impressive economic progress and the need for environmental sustainability and social equity. The state's trajectory serves as a compelling case study in the complexities of rapid development, underscoring both its potential for success and the inevitable challenges that arise with such ambitious progress. On this momentous occasion, we extend our heartfelt felicitations to the Honourable Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, as he marks this significant milestone in his illustrious personal and public career. His leadership has not only reshaped Gujarat but also left an indelible impact on the nation, and today, we celebrate his remarkable journey of 23 years of service and dedication.