Dragon’s Shadow Over the Desert: Is China Quietly Fuelling Iran’s War Machine Against Israel?
President Trump is learnt to have vetoed an Israeli proposal to assassinate Ayatollah Khamenei, warning it would have sparked a regional inferno; he insists diplomacy can still prevail.
By Karan Bir Singh Sidhu, MA (Economics), University of Manchester (UK); retired Indian Administrative Service officer (Punjab cadre) and former Special Chief Secretary, Government of Punjab. He writes on geostrategy, international affairs, and India’s expanding global influence.
Is China Quietly Providing Satellite Data to Iran?
Current Critical Situation Overview
For four nights the skies above Tehran and Tel Aviv have glowed with rocket trails and fireballs, turning a long-simmering stand-off into the most lethal exchange of state-on-state force the Middle East has witnessed in half a century. What began as pinpoint reprisals has cascaded into relentless, hour-on-the-hour salvos—ballistic missiles, drones and interceptor barrages—thrusting both capitals into their gravest crisis since the 1973 Yom Kippur War. The region’s two most formidable militaries are now trading blows with a ferocity that threatens to redraw red lines from the Strait of Hormuz to the Mediterranean and to drag global powers, energy markets and millions of civilians into a widening vortex of instability.
Escalating Death Toll and Casualties
Iran
Officials report 224 deaths and 1,277 injuries since Israel launched Operation Rising Lion on 13 June.
The deadliest single incident was the collapse of a 14-storey residential tower in Tehran, killing sixty people—half of them children.
Israel
Iranian missile salvos have caused 14 fatalities and 390 injuries.
The worst strike levelled a house in Bat Yam, killing six, including a ten-year-old boy and a nine-year-old girl. Further deaths were confirmed in Haifa and the Arab city of Tamra.
Latest Military Developments (15–16 June)
Iranian offensives
Two large barrages on 15 June first struck Tamra, then Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Bat Yam and Rehovot.
A further wave during the night of 15–16 June sent ballistic missiles towards Haifa, their re-entry flashes lighting the sky as Israeli interceptors engaged.
Israeli retaliation
Israeli jets have expanded their strikes to surface-to-surface missile sites in central Iran, oil refineries and Revolutionary Guard command centres.
Precision raids have killed the IRGC intelligence chief and two other generals, following earlier sorties that eliminated IRGC commander Hossein Salami and Armed-Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri.
Infrastructure Damage and Defence-System Vulnerabilities
Inside Israel
Kirya, Tel Aviv: For the first time, an Iranian ballistic missile exploded inside Israel’s most heavily defended military complex, shaking the Defence Ministry and General Staff headquarters and wounding five civilians just outside the perimeter.
Haifa power hub: A direct hit on transformers beside the port-side power plant ignited fires and triggered a brief blackout, disrupting naval dock operations; thirty civilians suffered burns and smoke-inhalation injuries.
Urban strikes: An apartment block in Petah Tikva was flattened, and Bat Yam’s seafront façades were shattered—evidence that Iran’s newer medium-range missiles can elude Israeli interception.
Inside Iran
Missile-assembly lines, radar arrays and SAM batteries around Tehran and Isfahan were flattened, hampering Iran’s ability to replenish its arsenal quickly.
Secondary explosions at a military fuel depot on Tehran’s western ring-road disrupted logistics for at least twenty-four hours.
Blast damage to water-treatment works south-east of Qom has forced tanker-lorry deliveries for roughly two million residents.
Air-defence performance
Footage from Tel Aviv shows several warheads punching through Iron Dome batteries before higher-tier Arrow interceptors could respond—proof that Israel’s celebrated shield, though formidable, is not impregnable.
China’s Enhanced Support to Iran
Missile propellants and components: Chinese suppliers shipped 1,000 tonnes of sodium perchlorate in February—enough for more than 250 Khaybar Shekan or 200 Haj Qasem ballistic missiles—and continue to provide GPS guidance modules and drone parts.
Satellite intelligence: State-owned Chang Guang Satellite Technology relays near-real-time, 30-centimetre imagery to Iran and its proxies; its constellation already tops one hundred satellites and may triple by year-end.
Official line from Beijing: Foreign-Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told reporters, ‘China opposes any infringement upon Iran’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity, and opposes any escalation of tensions… A sudden rise in regional tensions is in no one’s interest. Beijing stands ready to play a constructive role in easing the situation.’
India’s Calibrated Tightrope
India, with strategic stakes on both sides and millions of expatriates in the Gulf, is working hard to stay balanced:
New Delhi appealed on 13 June for ‘restraint and dialogue’, stressing that ‘India enjoys close and friendly relations with both the countries and stands ready to extend all possible support.’
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has spoken to his Iranian and Israeli counterparts, conveying deep concern and urging an early return to diplomacy.
India pointedly distanced itself from a Shanghai Co-operation Organisation statement condemning Israel—signalling its refusal to be drawn into bloc politics while keeping the door open for quiet mediation.
With nearly nine million Indians across the Gulf, the Indian Missions in the region have activated emergency hotlines, issued travel advisories and quietly co-ordinated with regional partners to secure sea-lanes and energy supplies.
President Trump’s Gambit
Injecting characteristic unpredictability, US President Donald Trump declared: ‘Iran and Israel should reach an agreement—and they will. We will have peace, soon, between Israel and Iran!’ He added, ‘Sometimes they have to fight it out first… but they want to talk, and they will be talking.’ Trump also confirmed he had vetoed an Israeli proposal to assassinate Ayatollah Khamenei, warning it would have sparked a regional inferno, yet he insists diplomacy can still prevail.
International Efforts and Spill-Over
The G7 summit in Alberta, Canada has been hijacked by the crisis; leaders are drafting a joint call for de-escalation.
A sixth round of US–Iran nuclear talks in Muscat, scheduled for 15 June, was cancelled once missiles began flying.
Oil prices have surged by more than ten per cent as shippers brace for possible disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
Regional spill-over is widening: Yemen’s Houthis have escalated drone attacks; Iraqi militias aligned with Tehran are demanding a faster US withdrawal; several Arab states have assisted in downing Iranian drones or sharing radar feeds.
Peering Ahead: A Perilous New Phase
Precision missile exchanges, the unprecedented detonation inside Israel’s primary military compound and deep-strike sorties in Iran underscore the conflict’s rapid escalation. Chinese technology and materiel have clearly amplified Tehran’s reach, while Israel has shown it can decapitate senior IRGC leadership.
Absent rapid diplomatic intervention—whether through a possible Trump-brokered deal, Indian shuttle diplomacy, or broader G7 pressure—each retaliatory spiral raises the risk of a wider war capable of choking vital energy corridors and jolting the global economy. The coming days will reveal whether world powers can pull the Middle East back from the brink, or whether the dragon’s shadow will lengthen over an expanding battlefield.