Bold Decisions and Missed Opportunities: An Analysis of PM Narendra Modi’s Tenure Since 2014

Inception of the Modi 3.0 Government, 9th June, 2024.

An Analysis of Narendra Modi’s Tenure

Since assuming office in May 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has indeed taken several bold and unprecedented decisions, aiming to transform India’s socio-economic and political landscape. While these decisions garnered significant attention and often broad public support, the lack of meticulous follow-up policies and actions has sometimes hindered their intended outcomes. In public policy, it is not merely the decision that counts but the subsequent implementation and sustained action that determine its success. Here, we examine seven major initiatives and the gaps in follow-up that have affected their optimal dividends.

1. Demonetisation

On 8th November 2016, Prime Minister Modi announced the demonetisation of ₹500 and ₹1,000 currency notes, aiming to combat black money, counterfeit currency, and terrorism financing. While the decision was bold, its execution faced severe criticism. The abrupt nature of the announcement led to widespread cash shortages, economic disruption, and hardship for millions of citizens.

Missed Opportunities:

• Lack of Preparedness: The government underestimated the logistical challenges and did not ensure sufficient new currency in circulation, causing prolonged cash shortages.

• Economic Impact: The informal sector, heavily reliant on cash transactions, suffered significant setbacks, leading to job losses and decreased economic activity.

• Follow-up Measures: Effective measures to sustain the crackdown on black money, such as improving the banking system and digital infrastructure, were not robustly implemented.

• No subsequent restriction on cash withdrawals: In absence of this restriction, the scheme became essentially a “currency exchange” scheme, rather than genuine demonetization.

• Income Tax Assessments: There was no presumptive income tax assessment on the cash deposited. Hence, we still have no firm figures of the income tax collected against the cash deposited in shape of demonetized notes.

2. Abrogation of Article 370

On 5th August 2019, the Modi government abrogated Article 370, which granted special autonomy to Jammu and Kashmir, and bifurcated the state into two Union Territories. This move aimed at integrating the region more closely with the rest of India and fostering development.

Missed Opportunities:

• Political Engagement: The abrogation was carried out without adequate political engagement with local leaders, leading to feelings of disenfranchisement among the populace.

• Economic Development: While the move promised economic growth, the lack of targeted investment and development projects has left many aspirations unfulfilled.

• Security Concerns: The heavy security presence and restrictions on communication have fostered a sense of alienation rather than integration.

• No roadmap to Statehood: This creates a sense of uncertainty as well as over all alienation as a Union territory.

• No firm date of elections: Although the Election Commission is visiting the UT, no firm dates have been announced. Moreover, seeing the Delhi model, there’s a general lack of enthusiasm as regards the Legislative Assembly of a UT.

3. Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA)

The Citizenship Amendment Act, passed in December 2019, aimed to provide citizenship to persecuted minorities from neighbouring countries. The act was seen as a bold humanitarian step but faced widespread protests and allegations of discriminating against Muslims.

Missed Opportunities:

• Clear Communication: The government failed to clearly communicate the intent and benefits of the CAA, leading to widespread misconceptions and fears.

• Inclusivity: The lack of a framework to address the concerns of all communities led to significant unrest and alienation.

• Follow-up Integration Policies: Effective integration and support mechanisms for the new citizens were not sufficiently planned and implemented.

• Notification of Rules: The statutory rules were notified after an inordinate delay, as a result of which the amendment in the law could not be operationalized.

• Supreme Court Cases: Although the cases challenging the constitutional validity of the amendment have been heard and the judgment reserved, the pending decision creates a sense of uncertainty. Despite this, most experts believe that the apex court will not strike down this contentious law.

4. National Lockdown During COVID-19

In March 2020, Prime Minister Modi announced a nationwide lockdown to curb the spread of COVID-19. This decision was among the most stringent measures taken globally and aimed to protect public health and save lives.

Missed Opportunities:

• Healthcare Infrastructure: The lockdown highlighted the deficiencies in India's healthcare infrastructure, but substantial improvements and investments in the sector did not follow at the necessary scale.

• Economic Relief: While some relief measures were announced, they were often insufficient to mitigate the economic impact on the most vulnerable populations.

• Vaccination Drive: Although India eventually ramped up its vaccination efforts, the initial phases were marked by logistical challenges and vaccine shortages.

5. Third Lok Sabha Victory, Same Old Team

In 2019, Narendra Modi’s leadership secured a third successive Lok Sabha mandate, a testament to his popularity and the trust placed in his governance.

Missed Opportunities:

• Team Renewal: The continued reliance on the same old team without significant infusion of fresh talent and ideas has led to stagnation in policy innovation and implementation.

• Administrative Reforms: Persistent issues in governance and administration required new approaches and dynamic leadership, which could have been achieved by bringing in new faces.

• Policy Execution: Innovative and effective policy execution often demands new perspectives and approaches, which were somewhat lacking due to the unchanged team composition.

6. Repeal of the Three Farm Laws, but No Statutory MSP

In a significant move, Prime Minister Modi repealed the contentious farm laws in 2021, showing responsiveness to the farmers' protests and public sentiment. However, the core issue of Minimum Support Price (MSP) remains unaddressed on a statutory basis.

Missed Opportunities:

• MSP Assurance: Providing a statutory basis for MSP could have addressed the core concerns of the farmers and ensured their economic security.

• Comprehensive Agricultural Reforms: The repeal was not accompanied by a comprehensive plan to reform the agricultural sector, leaving systemic issues unresolved.

• Stakeholder Engagement: A more inclusive approach involving all stakeholders in policy formulation could have led to more sustainable and accepted reforms.

7. Women’s Reservation Bill

The Women’s Reservation Bill, proposing a constitutional amendment to reserve 33% of seats in the Lok Sabha and state legislative assemblies for women, was passed with the intent to promote gender equality in politics. However, its implementation has been deferred until 2029.

Missed Opportunities:

• Immediate Implementation: Delaying the implementation undermines the immediate benefits of increased female representation in legislative bodies.

• Political Will: The deferral raises questions about the political will to prioritise gender equality in governance.

• Capacity Building: The postponement limits the time available for capacity building and leadership development among women, essential for effective political participation.

• No Political Initiative: Despite championing the Women’s Reservation Bill, the BJP did not allocate 33% of its own tickets to women candidates. As the main advocate of this scheme, the party should have led by example. Implementing this policy internally would have demonstrated a genuine commitment to gender equality and strengthened its women leadership. By not doing so, the BJP missed a crucial opportunity to foster greater female representation in Indian politics.

Summing Up and Looking Forward

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tenure has been marked by several bold decisions, each with the potential to significantly reshape India’s future. However, the lack of comprehensive follow-up policies and effective implementation has often impeded the realisation of their full potential. As the Modi 3.0 Government moves forward, it is crucial to learn from these experiences and ensure that future initiatives are not only bold in their conception but also meticulous in their execution. Where follow-up action can still be taken in respect of previous initiatives, it should be pursued diligently. Only through sustained and inclusive follow-up actions can the true dividends of these policies be realised, fostering a more prosperous and integrated India. Moreover, future decisions should be taken in a consultative manner, especially given that the BJP does not have an absolute majority on its own in the Lok Sabha.